Corrugated Cardboard Box Sales Plummet, Indicating US Retail Demand Correction Ahead

US cardboard box sales have declined to the lowest second-quarter reading since 2015, signaling potential weakness in retail demand across industries. Memphis-based International Paper Co. reported a 5% drop in daily US box shipments, while Dublin-based Smurfit Westrock Plc saw a 4.5% slide in North American corrugated cardboard volumes. This decline could indicate a correction in retail spending, which makes up almost 70% of the US economy.

US cardboard box sales have declined to the lowest second-quarter reading since 2015, signaling potential weakness in retail demand across industries. Memphis-based International Paper Co. reported a 5% drop in daily US box shipments, while Dublin-based Smurfit Westrock Plc saw a 4.5% slide in North American corrugated cardboard volumes. This decline could indicate a correction in retail spending, which makes up almost 70% of the US economy [2].

The cardboard box industry, often used as a nontraditional economic indicator, provides insights into consumer spending patterns. The decline in box shipments suggests that retailers are experiencing reduced demand for their products. This is particularly concerning given the significant role consumer spending plays in the US economy [2].

The drop in cardboard box sales could be attributed to several factors. President Donald Trump's mixed messaging on tariffs has led to uncertainty among companies regarding their long-term demand and costs. As a result, many companies are hesitant to stock up on packaging materials until the situation becomes clearer [2]. Additionally, the low housing turnover rate means consumers are not buying as many large items, which typically require substantial packaging [2].

While the cardboard box industry is not a direct proxy for retail spending, it can provide early signals of changes in consumer behavior and manufacturing activity. The decline in box sales suggests that the retail sector may be experiencing a slowdown, potentially due to economic uncertainty or changing consumer preferences [2].

Investors and financial professionals should closely monitor the cardboard box sales data and other economic indicators to gauge the health of the retail sector. A sustained decline in cardboard box sales could signal a broader slowdown in consumer spending and have implications for the overall economy.

References:
[1] https://www.ainvest.com/news/unseen-ripple-fading-appetite-treasuries-signals-shift-global-finance-2508/
[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-14/cardboard-box-sales-fall-in-worrying-sign-for-us-retail