U.S. Corn Export Inspections Declined Last Week

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported a decline in corn export inspections for the week ended Oct. 31, 2024, compared to the previous week. According to the USDA, corn export inspections totaled 779,078 metric tons, down from the previous week's figure of 1.13 million metric tons. Soybean export inspections also decreased to 2.16 million metric tons, down from the previous week's figure of 2.57 million metric tons. Wheat export inspections, however, increased to 193,523 metric tons, up from the previous week's figure of 172,523 metric tons.

The decline in corn export inspections can be attributed to several factors, including weak demand from China, alternative destinations, and strong domestic gasoline demand and foreign demand for U.S. ethanol. China, a major importer of U.S. corn, has exhibited weak demand for U.S. corn, which has contributed to the decline in export inspections. However, alternative destinations have been purchasing U.S. corn, which competes with Argentina as the cheapest in the global market. This shift in demand has contributed to a 150-million-bushel increase in the 2024/25 U.S. corn export forecast.

Strong domestic gasoline demand and foreign demand for U.S. ethanol have also contributed to the decline in corn export inspections. Elevated, but stable domestic gasoline demand from the prior year into the early part of 2024/25, along with strong foreign demand for U.S. ethanol, has led to a 50-million-bushel increase in the corn-for-ethanol-use forecast.



The decline in corn export inspections has implications for global market share, as the United States competes with other major corn-producing countries such as Brazil and Argentina. According to the USDA, Brazil's corn exports in the 2024/25 marketing year were projected at 3.2 billion bushels, while Argentina's exports were forecast at 1.5 billion bushels. These projections indicate that Brazil and Argentina together account for a larger share of global corn exports than the United States.

The impact of the U.S.-China trade war on U.S. corn exports has been significant, with China being a major destination for U.S. corn. In 2018, the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, which led China to retaliate with tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, including corn. This resulted in a significant reduction in U.S. corn exports to China. According to a study commissioned by the American Soybean Association and the National Corn Growers Association, if China cancels its waiver and reverts to tariffs already on the books, U.S. corn exports to China would fall about 2.2 million metric tons annually, an average decline of 84.3% from the baseline expectation.

A potential resolution to the trade war could lead to an increase in U.S. corn exports to China, as tariffs would be removed or reduced. This would likely have a positive impact on the U.S. corn market in the long term, as China is a major importer of corn. However, if the trade war escalates, U.S. corn exports to China could continue to decline, leading to further losses for U.S. corn farmers and potentially driving down corn prices in the long term.

In conclusion, the decline in U.S. corn export inspections can be attributed to several factors, including weak demand from China, alternative destinations, and strong domestic gasoline demand and foreign demand for U.S. ethanol. The decline in corn export inspections has implications for global market share, as the United States competes with other major corn-producing countries such as Brazil and Argentina. The impact of the U.S.-China trade war on U.S. corn exports has been significant, with China being a major destination for U.S. corn. A potential resolution to the trade war could lead to an increase in U.S. corn exports to China, while an escalation could lead to further losses for U.S. corn farmers and potentially drive down corn prices in the long term.