CorMedix cae un 21% debido a problemas de reembolsos y reducción en las directrices regulatorias… ¿Es esta una oportunidad para comprar acciones de la empresa?

Summary
• CorMedix (CRMD) slumps 31.42% to $7.66, erasing $3.5B in market cap
• 2026 revenue guidance signals potential decline from $400M FY2025 pro forma
• DefenCath reimbursement cuts loom as key catalyst
• Options chain erupts with 130%+ price change ratios on short-dated puts

CorMedix Therapeutics (CRMD) is hemorrhaging value in a dramatic intraday collapse, trading at $7.66—its lowest since 2022. The stock has cratered from a $11.17 close to a $7.22 intraday low, driven by a bearish technical setup and a revenue outlook that defies its recent transformation into a multi-product biopharma giant. With DefenCath’s reimbursement model shifting and 2026 guidance below 2025 levels, investors are fleeing as the company navigates a critical inflection point.

Revenue Guidance and Reimbursement Woes Trigger Flight
CorMedix’s 31% collapse stems from a dual blow: conservative 2026 revenue guidance and impending reimbursement cuts for its flagship DefenCath product. The company’s FY2026 revenue target of $300M–$320M—below FY2025’s $400M pro forma—signals a strategic retreat amid CMS-driven pricing erosion. DefenCath’s TDAPA reimbursement transition in Q3 2026 will slash institutional payouts, directly impacting CRMD’s top line. Meanwhile, the Melinta acquisition’s $35M annual synergies fail to offset the near-term revenue drag, triggering a liquidity crisis in investor sentiment.

Biotech Sector Suffers as AMGN Drags Down
The biotech sector mirrored CRMD’s decline, with Amgen (AMGN) falling 2.24% as broader market fears of regulatory headwinds and pricing pressures spread. While AMGN’s decline reflects macroeconomic concerns, CRMD’s collapse is uniquely tied to product-specific reimbursement risks. The sector’s 1.5% average drop underscores a risk-off environment, but CRMD’s 31% move highlights its vulnerability to CMS policy shifts and near-term cash flow uncertainties.

Options and ETFs for the Blood-Soaked Playbook
• RSI: 47.18 (neutral) • MACD: 0.213 (bearish) • 200D MA: $11.29 (below price) • Bollinger Bands: $10.93–$12.79 (oversold)

CRMD’s technicals paint a bearish picture, with price trading below all major moving averages and RSI hovering near oversold territory. The 200D MA at $11.29 acts as a critical resistance level, while the Bollinger Band lower bound at $10.93 offers a near-term floor. With implied volatility spiking to 130% on short-dated puts, aggressive short-term traders should focus on options with high leverage and gamma sensitivity.

Top Options:
• CRMD20260116P8 (Put, $8 strike, Jan 16):
- IV: 130.21% (extreme volatility)
- Leverage: 9.76% (high)
- Delta: -0.529 (moderate sensitivity)
- Gamma: 0.252 (strong price sensitivity)
- Turnover: 19,869 (liquid)
- Price Change: 1,480% (volatility explosion)
- Payoff (5% down): $0.39 (max(0, $8 - $7.27))
- Why: This put offers explosive upside in a 5% down scenario, with high gamma ensuring rapid premium decay as CRMD approaches the strike.

• CRMD20260220P8 (Put, $8 strike, Feb 20):
- IV: 74.74% (moderate)
- Leverage: 8.20% (high)
- Delta: -0.497 (moderate sensitivity)
- Gamma: 0.199 (strong sensitivity)
- Turnover: 14,094 (liquid)
- Price Change: 70.91% (volatility surge)
- Payoff (5% down): $0.39 (max(0, $8 - $7.27))
- Why: A longer-dated alternative with balanced leverage and gamma, ideal for capitalizing on a sustained bearish move into Q2 2026.

Action: Aggressive bears should prioritize CRMD20260116P8 for a short-term scalp, while CRMD20260220P8 offers a safer, longer-term bet. Both contracts thrive in a 5% down scenario, with high gamma ensuring rapid premium erosion as CRMD approaches $8.

Backtest CorMedix Stock Performance
The backtest of CRMD's performance after a -31% intraday plunge from 2022 to now shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a maximum return of 12.83% over 30 days, the 3-day win rate was 47.73%, the 10-day win rate was 40.91%, and the 30-day win rate was 52.27%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. However, the average returns over these periods were relatively modest, with a 3-day return of 0.80% and a 10-day return of -1.19%, suggesting that while there were some positive rebounds, there were also periods of underperformance.

CRMD at Crossroads: Rebound or Requiem?
CorMedix’s 31% collapse has created a critical inflection point, with $7.22 support and $10.93 Bollinger Band floor as key levels to watch. While the company’s 2027 DefenCath pricing optimism and ReSPECT study data in Q2 2026 offer long-term hope, near-term liquidity risks and reimbursement cuts demand caution. The sector’s 1.5% decline, led by Amgen’s 2.24% drop, underscores broader biotech fragility. Investors should monitor the $7.22 intraday low for a potential rebound or breakdown, while options traders can exploit the 130%+ volatility spike in short-dated puts. For now, the blood-red drop is a test of CRMD’s resilience—and its shareholders’ patience.