Is CoreWeave's Oversold Stock a Contrarian Buy in the AI Infrastructure Boom?

The stock market is a theater of extremes, and CoreWeave (CRWV) has taken center stage in the AI infrastructure boom with a performance that defies conventional valuation metrics. As of December 2025, CoreWeave's stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 0.00 and a 9-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 25.87, both of which signal an oversold condition. For investors with a contrarian bent, this raises a compelling question: Is CoreWeave's battered stock a high-conviction opportunity in a sector poised for explosive growth, or is it a cautionary tale of overleveraged ambition?

The Case for Asymmetric Upside

CoreWeave's fundamentals suggest a company on the cusp of a breakout. In Q3 2025, the firm reported revenue of $1.365 billion, a 134% year-over-year increase, driven by a $55.6 billion revenue backlog. This includes landmark contracts such as a $14.2 billion deal with Meta and a $22.4 billion partnership with OpenAI. These commitments alone provide a level of revenue visibility that few tech stocks can match. Meanwhile, CoreWeave's proprietary AI-optimized cloud platform-featuring 250,000 NVIDIA GPUs and a 20% performance edge over legacy systems-positions it as a critical player in the AI compute arms race.

The company's growth trajectory is further amplified by its aggressive infrastructure expansion. By the end of 2024, CoreWeave had scaled its data center footprint from three to 32 facilities, with plans for additional sites in the U.S. and U.K. in 2025. Analysts project annual revenue growth of 84.2% through 2028, with earnings potentially reaching $1.6 billion by 2028. These figures, combined with the AI infrastructure market's projected $74.06 billion valuation in 2025 and a 35% CAGR for GPU cloud computing through 2033, suggest a market tailwind that could magnify CoreWeave's gains.

The Risks of a High-Stakes Bet

Yet for every catalyst, there is a counterweight. CoreWeave's balance sheet is a minefield of debt, with operating leases and construction costs straining its financial flexibility. The company's reliance on NVIDIA for its entire GPU inventory also introduces supply chain risks, particularly if delays in the Blackwell GPU rollout disrupt its growth plans. Additionally, the EU AI Act, set to take effect in 2026, could impose energy-use restrictions that complicate CoreWeave's data center expansion.

Customer concentration is another vulnerability. While partnerships with Meta and OpenAI are lucrative, they also expose CoreWeave to the whims of hyperscalers that may eventually vertical integrate their AI infrastructure, eroding CoreWeave's margins. The stock's 60% decline from its highs since Q3 2025 reflects market skepticism about these risks, as well as broader concerns about an AI bubble.

Asymmetric Risk/Reward: A Contrarian Lens

The key to evaluating CoreWeave lies in framing its risks and rewards through an asymmetric lens. On the upside, the company's revenue backlog and AI-optimized infrastructure could drive earnings growth that outpaces even the most bullish projections. If the AI infrastructure market expands as expected, CoreWeave's specialized platform and first-mover advantage could translate into outsized returns for shareholders.

On the downside, the risks are severe but not existential. A slowdown in AI demand, regulatory headwinds, or supply chain bottlenecks could delay revenue recognition and exacerbate debt burdens. However, the sheer scale of CoreWeave's contracts-particularly with OpenAI and Meta-provides a buffer against short-term volatility. For investors with a multi-year horizon and a tolerance for volatility, the potential rewards may justify the risks.

Conclusion: A High-Volatility, High-Reward Proposition

CoreWeave's stock is undeniably oversold, and its fundamentals suggest a company with the scale and innovation to thrive in the AI era. Yet its path to growth is littered with obstacles that could test even the most patient investors. For those who believe in the long-term potential of AI infrastructure and are willing to stomach near-term turbulence, CoreWeave offers an asymmetric risk/reward profile that is hard to ignore. However, this is not a bet for the faint of heart. The AI boom is still in its early innings, and CoreWeave's success will depend on its ability to execute against a backdrop of intense competition and regulatory scrutiny.