CoreWeave Jumps 10.92% On Heavy Volume As Technicals Hint At Bullish Reversal

CoreWeave (CRWV) surged 10.92% in the latest session, closing at $114.13 on substantial volume, signaling potential bullish momentum after recent declines. This analysis examines key technical indicators to evaluate the stock's trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
The July 31 session formed a robust bullish candle with a wide range (L:$111.50, H:$119.59) and a close near the high, indicating strong buying pressure. This follows a hammer-like pattern on July 30 (L:$100.80, C:$102.89), suggesting exhaustion of the downtrend that began in late June. Immediate resistance is observed at $120 (previous swing low from July 24), while support holds near $100.80. A decisive break above $120 could validate a short-term reversal.
Moving Average Theory
CoreWeave trades below all key moving averages, reflecting persistent bearish pressure. The 50-day MA (estimated ~$130-135) caps recent rallies, while the 100-day (~$140) and 200-day (~$115-120) MAs exhibit downward slopes. The current price remains 15% below the 50-day MA, reinforcing intermediate-term bearishness. A bullish MA crossover remains absent, requiring sustained closes above the 50-day threshold to signal trend rehabilitation.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a tentative convergence in negative territory, hinting at weakening downside momentum. Histogram bars are flattening near July lows—a potential precursor to bullish reversal. KDJ (14,3,3) exited oversold (K/D<20) on July 31, with the %K line hooking above %D, suggesting nascent upward momentum. Both oscillators align in signaling reduced selling pressure, though confirmation requires MACD crossing above its signal line.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day, 2σ) contracted sharply during July’s consolidation, indicating compression before directional resolution. The July 31 close near the upper band ($118-120) denotes renewed bullish energy. Volatility expansion from this squeeze may trigger a decisive move; sustained upper-band tagging could propel prices toward $130.
Volume-Price Relationship
The July 31 rally occurred on 24.7M shares—double the 10-day average—validating bullish conviction. However, distribution days marked prior declines (e.g., July 17: -7.57% on 12.2M shares), emphasizing residual selling pressure. Recent volume divergence (higher volume on up days vs. down days) supports reversal potential, though follow-through buying is essential.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (~42) rebounded from oversold territory (July 30: ~28) but remains below neutrality (50). While the RSI’s exit from sub-30 levels typically precedes rallies, its position below 50 suggests incomplete recovery momentum. Historically, rallies have stalled near RSI 60-65 during this downtrend, making that zone a key watchpoint.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the June 20 high ($183.58) and July 30 low ($100.80) reveals critical retracement hurdles: 23.6% ($120.50), 38.2% ($132.50), and 50% ($142.20). The price stalled at the 23.6% level in late July, reinforcing $120-121 as a technical battleground. A breach above this zone may target $132.50, coinciding with the 100-day MA.
Confluence & Divergence Observations
Confluence exists at $120, where Bollinger Band resistance, Fibonacci 23.6%, and prior swing lows converge—a decisive close above this level would align with bullish candlestick, volume, and KDJ signals. Divergence emerges in RSI, which made higher lows in late July while prices tested lower lows, foreshadowing the recent bounce. However, MACD lacks confirmation, as its histogram remains negative. The bearish MA alignment tempers reversal optimism, requiring additional evidence for trend reversal confirmation. Near-term upside appears probable toward $120-125, but medium-term trend strength remains contingent on reclaiming key MAs.