CoreWeave y Jabil: Evaluación de las ventajas en la infraestructura de IA

The central question for investors is whether CoreWeave and Jabil represent durable, high-quality businesses with wide moats, or simply speculative plays riding a powerful trend. The answer hinges on the structural, long-term demand driver now reshaping the global economy: the explosive build-out of artificial intelligence infrastructure.

This is not a fleeting cycle. The market for AI data centers is projected to grow from roughly $13.6 billion in 2025 to nearly $60.5 billion by 2030, according to Grandview Research. That represents a compound annual growth rate of over 28%. This secular expansion creates a multi-year runway for companies that can deliver the specialized hardware, software, and power solutions required to run the world's most advanced AI models.

CoreWeave operates at the software and platform layer of this new stack. The company "operates a cloud platform that provides scaling, support, and acceleration for GenAI," serving high-profile clients like Meta and OpenAI. Its third-quarter results underscore the demand: revenue more than doubled year-over-year to $1.36 billion, and its backlog jumped by $25 billion to over $55 billion. The CEO noted that demand for its platform "far exceeds available capacity." For a value investor, this is a classic sign of a business with pricing power and a growing moat, as customers return for more deals and the company scales efficiently.

Jabil, by contrast, is building its moat at the physical layer. The company recently completed the $725 million acquisition of Hanley Energy Group, a leader in critical power solutions for data centers. This move directly addresses a fundamental bottleneck: AI data centers consume vastly more energy than legacy facilities. By integrating Hanley's capabilities, Jabil aims to position itself at the forefront of the AI hardware supply chain. The company is also investing $500 million in the Southeast U.S. to expand its manufacturing footprint for this market, following a prior acquisition in liquid cooling technology.

Together, these moves frame a compelling thesis. CoreWeave captures the software and platform value, while Jabil secures a critical piece of the physical infrastructure. The durability of their moats, however, will be tested by formidable competition. CoreWeave must contend with the deep pockets of Amazon and Microsoft, while Jabil faces rivals like Flex and Celestica. The investment case rests on their ability to execute and maintain a technological and operational edge within this high-growth, capital-intensive environment.

Analyzing the Business Engines: Growth, Profitability, and Competitive Position

The investment case for these AI infrastructure plays rests on the quality and durability of their growth engines. For CoreWeave, the numbers are staggering. In the third quarter, revenue more than doubled year-over-year to $1.36 billion, while its adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled to $838 million. This explosive growth is backed by a massive, expanding backlog that jumped by $25 billion to over $55 billion in the same period. The company's ability to secure multiple deals with its top customers, including giants like Meta and OpenAI, signals deep customer lock-in and pricing power. Yet this strength comes at a premium. The stock trades at a price-sales ratio of 8.9 times, a valuation that prices in near-perfect execution for years to come. For a value investor, this is a classic tension: a business growing at a spectacular clip, but one whose future is already fully valued.

Jabil's growth story is built on a different foundation: unmatched operational scale and diversification. Its data center business is booming, but it is just one part of a much larger, resilient engine. The company operates across 100 locations in 30 countries, a global footprint that provides critical supply chain agility and cost advantages. This extensive network is further strengthened by a centralized procurement system and a single ERP platform, giving it a powerful operational moat. More importantly, Jabil's unmatched end-market experience and diversified portfolio-where no single product family is expected to exceed 5% of operating income-protect it from the volatility of any single sector. This setup is designed for steady, long-term compounding, not speculative spikes.

The competitive landscapes they face are worlds apart. CoreWeave operates in a direct arms race with the titans of cloud computing. Its formidable competitors are Amazon and Microsoft, companies with virtually unlimited capital and existing hyperscaler relationships. For CoreWeave, the moat must be built on superior technology and customer service to justify its premium valuation. Jabil's moat, by contrast, is forged in the crucible of global manufacturing. Its advantage lies in its technical and design capabilities, manufacturing know-how, and global product management expertise. This end-to-end supply chain network is difficult to replicate, especially for a company of its size and reach. While it faces rivals like Flex and Celestica, Jabil's diversified, global footprint offers a different kind of durability-one based on execution and resilience rather than pure technological novelty.

The bottom line is that both companies are riding a powerful, long-term trend, but their paths to value creation differ. CoreWeave is a pure-play growth story demanding flawless execution and a wide margin of safety in its valuation. Jabil is a quality compounder, where its global scale and diversified experience provide a cushion against cyclical pressures. For the patient investor, the choice may come down to whether they are betting on a technological winner or a superior operator.

Financial Health and Valuation: Margin of Safety for Long-Term Compounding

The margin of safety, the cornerstone of value investing, is determined by the gap between a business's intrinsic value and its current market price. For these AI infrastructure plays, that gap is shaped by their financial health and the market's often-fickle sentiment.

CoreWeave presents a classic high-growth, high-multiple scenario. The company's financial engine is powerful, with revenue and EBITDA more than doubling last quarter. Yet its stock trades at an elevated price-sales ratio of 8.9 times. This valuation leaves little room for error. The intrinsic value of the business is now highly sensitive to the long-term growth assumptions embedded in that multiple. Any slowdown in the AI build-out, or a failure to maintain its technological edge against Amazon and Microsoft, would directly pressure that premium. For a value investor, this means the margin of safety is thin. The stock's price already reflects a future of continued spectacular execution. The risk is not that the company will fail, but that it will simply grow at a rate that justifies a lower multiple, a common fate for market darlings.

Jabil, in contrast, offers a different kind of financial resilience. Its strength lies in robust cash flow and a diversified engine. The company is projected to generate more than $1.3 billion in adjusted free cash flow this year. This substantial cash generation provides a powerful buffer, funding its strategic investments in data center infrastructure while returning capital to shareholders. More importantly, its unmatched end-market experience and diversified portfolio-where no single product family is expected to exceed 5% of operating income-act as a stabilizing moat. This setup is designed to smooth out earnings volatility, protecting intrinsic value during economic shifts. The margin of safety here is built on operational durability and financial flexibility, not just future growth projections.

The market's volatile reaction to AI stocks underscores the risk of sentiment-driven mispricing. While the broader sector has rallied, some companies with AI exposure have dramatically underperformed. Shares of Upstart and Atlassian have declined 22% and 34% respectively this year, even as Wall Street analysts generally view them as undervalued. This divergence highlights how quickly enthusiasm can evaporate, punishing even fundamentally sound businesses caught in a sector-wide sentiment swing. For investors, this volatility is a reminder that intrinsic value is a long-term concept. The patient investor must focus on the underlying business quality-CoreWeave's growth trajectory or Jabil's cash-generating diversification-while treating short-term price swings as noise. The margin of safety is found not in the current price, but in the business's ability to compound value through good and bad cycles.

Catalysts, Risks, and What to Watch

The investment thesis for both CoreWeave and Jabil is forward-looking. The path to realizing their intrinsic value will be determined by specific future events and metrics. For the patient investor, the task is to identify the milestones that will confirm the durability of their moats and the risks that could erode their premium valuations.

For CoreWeave, the primary catalyst is continued, flawless execution on its growth engine. The company must demonstrate that its revenue and adjusted EBITDA more than doubled year-over-year last quarter is not a one-time surge but the start of a sustained trend. Investors should watch for sequential growth in its massive backlog, which jumped by $25 billion to over $55 billion. More importantly, the company needs to show it can keep expanding its customer base beyond its top-tier clients, as evidenced by its recent deals with Meta and OpenAI. Any sign that its formidable competitors, Amazon and Microsoft, are gaining ground on pricing or capacity could challenge the thesis.

The overarching risk for CoreWeave is that the "AI discount" persists if its growth fails to meet or exceed the high expectations already embedded in its stock. With a price-sales ratio of 8.9 times, the market is pricing in near-perfect execution for years. A slowdown in AI spending, even a temporary one, could trigger a sharp re-rating. The company's ability to maintain its technological edge and customer lock-in will be under constant scrutiny.

Jabil's catalysts are more operational and strategic. The key near-term event is the successful integration of Hanley Energy Group, the $725 million acquisition for critical power solutions. The company aims to position itself at the forefront of the AI hardware supply chain, and the integration of Hanley's capabilities with its existing data center expertise is critical. Investors should monitor the execution of its $500 million investment in the Southeast U.S. to expand manufacturing for this market. The broader data center strategy, which includes its prior acquisition in liquid cooling, must translate into tangible revenue growth from this booming sector.

The primary risk for Jabil is execution. The company's strength lies in its diversified, global manufacturing footprint, but integrating new capabilities and scaling new product lines is complex. Any significant delays or cost overruns in the Hanley integration or the Southeast expansion could pressure margins and delay the anticipated benefits. Furthermore, while its diversified portfolio provides a cushion, Jabil is not immune to a cyclical downturn in manufacturing or capital equipment spending, which could dampen overall growth.

The bottom line is that both companies face the same fundamental tension. They are riding a powerful, long-term secular trend, but their current valuations demand that they execute flawlessly. For CoreWeave, the watchlist is clear: revenue growth, customer expansion, and competitive positioning. For Jabil, it's integration success, strategic execution, and the resilience of its diversified engine. The patient investor must remain vigilant, using these specific catalysts and risks as the compass for long-term compounding.