CoreCivic: updated guidance reflects expected ASR pact impact

CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE: CXW) has updated its financial guidance for 2026, reflecting the anticipated impact of the Activation Support and Readiness (ASR) pact, which is expected to enhance the company’s ability to meet growing demand from federal, state, and local government partners. The guidance now includes a projected net income range of $147.5 million to $157.5 million, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) estimated between $1.49 and $1.59. The company also anticipates Funds From Operations (FFO) per diluted share to fall between $2.54 and $2.64, and Adjusted EBITDA to range from $437.0 million to $445.0 million.

The updated guidance accounts for the activation of previously idle facilities, including the California City Immigration Processing Center and the Diamondback Correctional Facility, which are expected to reach stabilized occupancy in the first and second quarters of 2026, respectively. These activations are part of CoreCivic’s strategic capital investments, which totaled $30.0 million to $35.0 million for maintenance capital expenditures on real estate assets and $35.0 million to $40.0 million for capital expenditures associated with facility activations.

CoreCivic’s balance sheet remains strong, with leverage measured as net debt to Adjusted EBITDA at 2.8x for the trailing twelve months as of December 31, 2025. The company has also expanded its revolving credit facility to $575.0 million, providing enhanced balance sheet flexibility to support strategic investments and long-term value creation.

The ASR pact is expected to facilitate the timely activation of idle facilities, reducing the typical three to six months required to prepare a facility to accept residential populations. This is particularly relevant given the anticipated increase in demand for detention capacity driven by changes in immigration policy and legislation.

CoreCivic’s updated guidance excludes the impact of any new contract awards not previously announced and does not include the activation of the Midwest Regional Reception Center, which remains subject to legal uncertainties. The company also plans to continue its share repurchase program, with $300.5 million remaining under the program as of December 31, 2025.

Overall, CoreCivic’s updated financial guidance reflects a strategic focus on leveraging its available capacity and strong balance sheet to meet the evolving needs of its government partners, while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation and operational efficiency.