Cobre en la era de IA: una crisis estructural de suministro y el caso de las posiciones largas estratégicas

The global transition to artificial intelligence (AI) and renewable energy is catalyzing a seismic shift in commodity demand, with copper emerging as a linchpin of modern infrastructure. As data centers expand to meet the computational demands of AI and grids evolve to support clean energy, copper's role as an irreplaceable conductor of electricity and heat is creating a perfect storm of structural supply constraints. For investors, this confluence of inelastic supply and surging demand presents a compelling case for strategic long positions in copper and its associated sectors.

The AI-Driven Copper Surge

The exponential growth of AI infrastructure is redefining copper demand. According to a report by BloombergNEF, new data centers alone will require an average of 400,000 metric tons of copper annually over the next decade, peaking at 572,000 tons in 2028. By 2035, the cumulative copper locked into data centers could surpass 4.3 million tons according to BloombergNEF. This surge is driven by copper's unmatched conductivity, which is critical for power transmission, cooling systems, and compact connectors in AI hardware.

Compounding this demand is the need for grid upgrades to supply electricity to these data centers. The U.S. alone is projected to require 106 gigawatts of power for data centers by 2035, with grid connections accounting for a significant portion of copper usage according to carbon credits analysis. Meanwhile, renewable energy infrastructure-particularly wind and solar-demands copper at rates far exceeding traditional industries. BloombergNEF forecasts that power transmission and wind energy demand for copper will nearly double by 2035, further straining supply chains.

Inelastic Supply and Structural Deficits

The copper market's inability to scale production rapidly is exacerbating the imbalance. Mine development timelines have stretched to 25 years, a lag that renders the supply side fundamentally inelastic in the short to medium term. Current global production, projected at 23.2–23.4 million tonnes in 2025, is growing at a modest 2.1–3% annually, far below the 4.3% annual demand growth expected over the same period according to U.N. trade data.

This mismatch is already manifesting in market signals. London Metal Exchange (LME) copper stocks have fallen below the critical 100,000-ton threshold, while processing fees have turned negative, indicating acute bottlenecks in production according to market analysis. By 2035, BloombergNEF estimates a potential shortage of 6 million tons, with a structural deficit expanding to 19 million tons by 2050 according to BNEF analysis. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has recognized copper as a critical mineral, underscoring the urgency for policy interventions to bolster domestic production-a shift that may further tighten global supply.

Market Implications and the Investment Case

The convergence of these dynamics is setting the stage for a prolonged bull market in copper. Prices are projected to peak at $13,500 per tonne in 2028, with the metal's scarcity likely to persist for decades. For investors, the case for strategic longs is threefold:

1. Mining Stocks: Producers with access to high-grade, politically stable reserves-such as those in Chile, Zambia, and the DRC-are positioned to benefit from sustained price momentum.
2. Recycling and Technology: Innovations in copper recycling and AI-driven mining efficiency could mitigate supply constraints, offering high-growth opportunities in the mid-term.
3. Infrastructure Exposure: Firms involved in grid modernization and data center construction will act as conduits for copper demand, amplifying the metal's value chain.

Conclusion

Copper's dual role as the backbone of AI and clean energy infrastructure, coupled with the inescapable inelasticity of its supply chain, creates a rare investment thesis. As the world races to meet decarbonization and digitalization goals, copper's scarcity will only intensify. For those with a long-term horizon, the metal's structural deficit is not merely a risk-it is an opportunity.