Cooking Oil Diplomacy: Why Europe is the New Kitchen for Chinese Exports

The trade war between China and the U.S. is heating up, but it’s not just solar panels or semiconductors that are getting caught in the crossfire—used cooking oil is now a geopolitical battleground. With U.S. tariffs soaring to 145%, China is flipping its strategy and turning to Europe, where tariffs are a mere 23.3%. This shift isn’t just about grease—it’s about money, markets, and the future of biofuels. Let’s break down the sizzle and the steak.

The Tariff Tilt: Why China is Ditching the U.S.

The math is simple: 145% tariffs vs. 23.3% tariffs. That’s the price difference China faces when exporting used cooking oil to the U.S. versus Europe. The U.S. tariffs, a mix of pre-existing duties and Trump-era escalations, make exporting non-exempt goods like cooking oil economically suicidal. Meanwhile, the EU’s 6.5% standard tariff plus a 16.8% anti-dumping duty—meant to counter “unfair” pricing—still leaves Europe as a far more attractive destination.

This isn’t just a temporary pivot. The EU’s anti-dumping measures on Chinese cooking oil are set to expire in December 2025, but even if they’re renewed, the combined rate is still a fraction of the U.S. penalty. Add to that Europe’s Renewable Energy Directive (RED III), which mandates higher biofuel blending in transportation, and you’ve got a recipe for rising demand. Europe’s refineries are hungry for feedstock, and Chinese exporters are ready to fill the pan.

Who Wins? Biodiesel, Logistics, and Clever Investors

The biggest beneficiary? Biodiesel producers in Europe. Companies like Neste (NESTE.HE) and Sveaskog rely heavily on used cooking oil to meet EU biofuel targets. With cheaper imports from China, their margins could sizzle.

Then there’s the logistics play. Shipping giants like Maersk (MAERSK-A.CO) and CMA CGM will handle the surge in trans-Pacific-to-Europe cargo. Don’t overlook railroads and ports in China and Europe either—they’re the unsung heroes of this trade shift.

But wait—there’s a catch. The EU’s anti-dumping duty isn’t going away quietly. If Chinese exporters are seen undercutting European competitors, tariffs could spike. Investors need to watch for any signs of policy shifts or trade disputes flaring up.

The Bottom Line: Europe’s Kitchen is Open—Serve the Stock Market

This isn’t just about cooking oil; it’s a microcosm of the global trade reshuffle. Europe’s relatively low tariffs and green energy goals make it the perfect partner for China’s non-strategic exports. For investors, the path is clear:

1. Buy into European biodiesel producers—their growth is baked in by regulatory mandates.
2. Play the logistics boom—shipping and port stocks will ride the wave of redirected trade.
3. Avoid U.S. competitors—unless they pivot to other markets or find a loophole.

The numbers don’t lie: 23.3% vs. 145% is a game-changer. Europe’s doors are wide open for Chinese cooking oil—and investors who move fast can savor the gains.

Final Take: Europe’s cooking oil demand is a simmering pot of opportunity. Dive in while the market’s hot.

Data as of Q2 2025. Always consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.