Cookie DAO/Tether Market Overview: Volatility and Recovery in a 24-Hour Session

• Cookie DAO/Tether (COOKIEUSDT) edged higher, forming a bullish reversal pattern after a sharp sell-off in the early morning session.
• Momentum indicators showed a recovery in buying pressure, with RSI stabilizing near the 50 level and MACD showing a narrowing bearish divergence.
• Volatility spiked during the late-night sell-off, with a 1.4% decline in 45 minutes, but buying interest returned post 05:00 ET.
• The 24-hour volume was robust at 45.4 million contracts, with turnover increasing during the recovery phase as buyers re-entered.
• Key support around 0.126–0.127 appears intact, and a break above 0.1305 could trigger a retest of the 0.132–0.133 resistance cluster.

COOKIEUSDT opened at 0.1201 on October 2, reached a high of 0.1332, then fell to a low of 0.1251 before closing at 0.1273 on October 3. Total traded volume was 45.4 million contracts, with a 24-hour notional turnover of approximately $5,974,572.

The 24-hour chart for COOKIEUSDT shows a sharp bearish reversal after a consolidation phase between 0.129–0.131. A key bearish candle on October 3 at 04:00 ET (12:00 ET–1) saw a 1.4% drop in 45 minutes, signaling potential overselling. A bullish recovery followed, forming a potential inverse head-and-shoulders pattern from 0.1251 to 0.1305. The 0.126–0.127 zone is currently acting as a strong support level, with a potential 0.1305–0.132 resistance ahead.

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly early in the session but have since flattened, indicating a potential pause in the downward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period EMAs remain in a tight alignment near 0.128–0.129, suggesting no strong directional bias from the broader trend. The MACD (12, 26, 9) showed a bearish crossover at the start of the session but is now narrowing, hinting at a possible trend reversal. The RSI (14) bottomed around 38.2% Fibonacci support (0.126), suggesting a temporary oversold condition. The 61.8% retracement level of the recent dip is around 0.1295, where buyers may face resistance.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 04:00 ET sell-off, with the price hitting the lower band at 0.1251. Volatility is now contracting, with the price trading within the bands around the 0.1273–0.1285 range. This suggests that the market is entering a period of consolidation post-volatility. A retest of the upper Bollinger Band at 0.1285–0.129 could signal a resumption of the bullish trend. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.1251 low to the 0.1332 high show key resistance at 0.1287 (38.2%) and 0.1305 (50%), both of which are likely to be watched closely.

The 24-hour volume and turnover analysis shows a surge in activity during the 04:00–05:00 ET window, coinciding with the sharp sell-off and subsequent recovery. The total volume of 45.4 million contracts suggests strong participation from both retail and institutional traders. However, notional turnover remains moderate, indicating that while volume increased, the average trade size may not have changed significantly. A divergence between volume and price action during the early morning sell-off (with volume spiking but price declining) may suggest some short-term profit-taking or stop-loss activation. As the price recovered, volume remained elevated, confirming the validity of the buying interest. A further confirmation of strength would be a higher-than-average volume on a breakout above 0.1305.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the recent consolidation and the potential formation of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, a backtest strategy could be built around a bullish breakout above the 0.1305 resistance level. The hypothesis is that a confirmed breakout with strong volume would signal a short-to-medium-term continuation of the upward trend. A long entry could be triggered above the neckline at 0.1305, with a stop loss placed below the 0.1285 support level and a target set at 0.132–0.133, reflecting the Fibonacci 50–61.8% levels. This approach aligns with the MACD divergence and RSI stabilization observed near the 50 line. The use of a 20/50 EMA crossover on the 15-minute chart could also serve as a secondary filter to confirm the breakout signal, improving the robustness of the strategy.