Cookie DAO/Tether Market Overview (2025-10-04)

• Cookie DAO/Tether traded between $0.1276 and $0.1361, closing near the lower half of the 24-hour range.
• A bearish momentum phase emerged in the second half of the day, with RSI entering oversold territory.
• Volatility expanded during sharp pullbacks, but volume remained relatively muted during key price swings.
• A potential support zone formed near $0.1300–$0.1280, with Fibonacci levels indicating possible retracement targets.
• A short-term bullish breakout attempt failed near $0.1360, raising the risk of further consolidation or a test of the 20-period MA.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04, Cookie DAO/Tether (COOKIEUSDT) opened at $0.1309, hit a high of $0.1361, a low of $0.1276, and closed at $0.1280. Total 24-hour volume was 10,998,693.3, with a notional turnover of $1,474,725. The pair displayed a bearish bias in the latter half of the day amid fluctuating volatility.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern at $0.1360–$0.1343, followed by a sharp decline into the $0.1310–$0.1280 range. A large bearish candle during the 17:15 ET time frame marked a key turning point. A potential support cluster emerged around $0.1300–$0.1280, with the 20-period moving average now at $0.1322.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed below the price action in the late afternoon, signaling a short-term bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits near $0.1350, acting as a resistance line for potential bounces.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed bearish divergence as price made higher lows but the MACD made lower ones. RSI bottomed near 30, suggesting oversold conditions, though without clear bullish confirmation. A bullish reversal would require RSI to break above 45 and MACD to flip positive.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the midday rally, with the upper band reaching $0.1365 and the lower band settling near $0.1275 by the close. Price spent much of the day near the lower band, indicating a period of underperformance relative to its recent range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the midday rally and the late afternoon drop but remained below average during the initial morning range. Notional turnover confirmed the price action, with the largest spikes occurring during the $0.1360–$0.1280 move. A divergence between price and volume during the early rebound suggests weak bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the $0.1276–$0.1361 swing, key levels include 0.382 ($0.1326), 0.500 ($0.1318), and 0.618 ($0.1310). Price currently rests near the 0.618 level, suggesting a potential support test or consolidation phase ahead.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtesting strategy involves entering short positions when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA and RSI drops below 35, with a stop-loss above the recent swing high. A long entry could trigger if RSI crosses above 55 and volume surges, with a target near the 0.500 Fibonacci level. This strategy would align with the current bearish setup and test the strength of the support cluster.