Contrarian Buy Case for Gambling.com: Navigating Deteriorating Estimates Amid a Track Record of Earnings Surprises

The stock market often rewards those who dare to challenge consensus. For Gambling.com Group (NASDAQ: GAMB), the Q3 2025 earnings season presents a compelling case for contrarian investors. While analysts have revised their EPS estimates downward, the company's historical performance-marked by consistent earnings beats-suggests the market may be underestimating its potential. With the earnings report due on November 13, 2025, the time is ripe to dissect the data and assess whether this volatility creates an opportunity.

Deteriorating Estimates: A Contrarian Signal?

The consensus EPS estimate for Gambling.com's Q3 2025 has fluctuated significantly in recent months. As of November 2025, the current estimate stands at $0.19 per share, down from $0.26 three months ago and $0.17 one month prior, according to MarketWatch. This decline reflects a broader trend of analyst caution, possibly driven by macroeconomic headwinds in the gaming sector or sector-specific concerns. However, such deteriorating estimates often signal a potential inflection point for stocks with strong execution histories.

Gambling.com's Q2 2025 results exemplify this dynamic. The company reported an EPS of $0.37, far exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.12, according to MarketBeat. This $0.25 beat-nearly 208% above expectations-was not an anomaly. In Q1 2025, the firm similarly outperformed by $0.27, and in Q2 2024, it beat estimates by $0.07, according to MarketBeat. These consistent surprises suggest a management team capable of navigating challenges, a trait that could amplify returns for investors who position ahead of the November 13 report.

Revenue Guidance and Analyst Optimism

Despite the downward EPS revisions, Gambling.com has provided FY 2025 revenue guidance of $171.0 million to $175.0 million, slightly below the consensus estimate of $172.2 million, according to MarketBeat. This suggests a cautious but realistic outlook, with management acknowledging potential headwinds while maintaining confidence in its core operations. Analysts, meanwhile, project Q3 2025 revenue of $41.06 million, up from $39.59 million in Q2, according to MarketBeat. If the company meets or exceeds this target, it could further validate its ability to grow revenue amid a competitive landscape.

The firm's long-term growth prospects also bolster the case for a contrarian buy. Analysts forecast annual earnings growth of 52.7% and revenue growth of 14.2%, with a projected return on equity of 33.4% in three years, according to SimplyWallSt. These metrics, while ambitious, align with Gambling.com's historical performance and indicate a company poised for sustained expansion.

The Contrarian Thesis: Risk vs. Reward

The key risk lies in the possibility that Gambling.com's Q3 2025 results fall short of the $0.19 consensus. A miss could trigger a sell-off, especially if macroeconomic conditions worsen. However, the company's track record of beating estimates-even when expectations were low-mitigates this risk. For instance, in Q2 2025, the firm's EPS of $0.37 was 3.08 times the consensus estimate, according to MarketBeat, a margin large enough to offset temporary volatility.

Moreover, institutional ownership of 72.26% MarketBeat suggests confidence from professional investors, who are less likely to react impulsively to short-term results. This stability could provide a buffer against overreactions, allowing the stock to recover quickly if the company delivers a strong report.

Strategic Entry Point

For investors willing to take a contrarian stance, the period leading up to November 13 offers a strategic entry window. The current consensus estimate of $0.19, according to MarketWatch, represents a 47% discount to Q2's actual EPS of $0.37, according to MarketBeat, creating a wide margin of safety. If Gambling.com replicates its Q2 performance, the stock could see a post-earnings rally driven by both earnings surprise and renewed analyst optimism.

In conclusion, Gambling.com's Q3 2025 earnings outlook is a study in contrasts: deteriorating estimates meet a history of outperformance. For those who can stomach short-term volatility, the combination of a strong balance sheet, consistent execution, and favorable long-term growth metrics makes a compelling case for a contrarian buy.