US consumer spending MoM actual 0.4% (forecast 0.3%, previous 0.5%)

US consumer spending MoM actual 0.4% (forecast 0.3%, previous 0.5%)

US Consumer Spending Grows 0.4% in January 2026, Matches Resilience Amid Economic Uncertainty

Consumer spending in the United States rose 0.4% month-over-month in January 2026, exceeding the forecasted 0.3% but slightly moderating from the 0.5% increase recorded in December 2025. The data, released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, highlights the continued resilience of household consumption despite persistent inflationary pressures and elevated borrowing costs.

The latest figures indicate broad-based growth across key spending categories. Durable goods spending increased by 0.7%, driven by stronger demand for goods such as motor vehicles and home appliances. Non-durable goods also saw a 0.7% rise, reflecting sustained purchases of items like food and clothing. Meanwhile, services spending grew at a more measured pace of 0.4%, with notable contributions from housing, healthcare, and financial services.

The back-to-back gains in consumer spending underscore the sector's role as a stabilizing force for the broader economy. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) account for roughly two-thirds of U.S. GDP, making this data a critical barometer for economic health. While the 0.4% increase aligns with long-term historical averages, it falls short of the robust growth seen during the pandemic era (e.g., 8.4% in May 2020).

Analysts note that the latest data may bolster confidence in the Federal Reserve's policy framework, as resilient spending could offset concerns about slowing business investment. However, challenges remain, including the lingering effects of inflation, which has reduced real-time purchasing power for many households.

Looking ahead, Trading Economics projects personal spending growth to trend near 0.5% in 2027, reflecting expectations of gradual normalization in consumer behavior. For now, the 0.4% increase reinforces the narrative of a consumer sector adapting to a higher-rate environment, albeit with uneven outcomes across income groups.