ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) Market Overview

• PEOPLEUSDT dipped 6.5% over 24 hours, forming a bearish 15-minute trend with multiple lower highs and lower closes.
• RSI declined into oversold territory near 30, suggesting potential near-term buying interest but weak bullish momentum.
• Volatility expanded after 00:00 ET, with Bollinger Band width widening as price drifted lower into the 0.0107–0.0108 range.
• Notional turnover spiked sharply after 15:30 ET as PEOPLEUSDT dropped 5% in a single 15-minute interval.
• A key support level appears to form at 0.01065, with 0.01085 acting as a short-term resistance on the 15-minute chart.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03, PEOPLEUSDT opened at $0.01143, peaked at $0.01180, and closed at $0.01071, marking a bearish session. The price action spanned a 24-hour range of $0.01180 to $0.00925, with a total volume of 785.1 million USDT and a notional turnover of approximately $85.6 million. The pair displayed strong downward momentum in the late hours of the previous day, followed by a consolidation phase in the early morning.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart of PEOPLEUSDT shows a clear bearish structure forming after the initial bullish push early in the session. Key support levels emerged around $0.01065–$0.01075, where price found repeated buying interest but failed to retest higher levels. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible around 00:30 ET, confirming the shift in sentiment. A doji formed near $0.01080, signaling indecision, but was followed by a sharp decline, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20 and 50-period) on the 15-minute chart have trended downward, aligning with the bearish price action. The 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA during the late hours of the previous session, forming a death cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is now approaching the 200-period MA from below, a sign of potential bearish momentum in the longer term if the crossover completes.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned negative after 01:00 ET, confirming the bearish momentum, while the signal line crossed below the histogram, reinforcing the downtrend. The RSI has dipped into oversold territory (RSI < 30) multiple times, most notably after the sharp drop at 15:30 ET. However, the price failed to rebound decisively after these levels, suggesting weak follow-through buying interest.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 00:00 ET, with Bollinger Bands widening to reflect the growing uncertainty in the market. Price remained near the lower band for much of the session, especially from 02:00 ET to 05:00 ET, indicating a distribution phase. A contraction in band width occurred briefly around 07:00 ET, suggesting a period of consolidation before the next leg down began.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically around 15:30 ET during the sharp drop to $0.00886, aligning with the price decline. This volume was accompanied by a large notional turnover increase, highlighting the intensity of the selling pressure. However, volume has since declined as the price consolidated near $0.01070–$0.01080, suggesting a potential equilibrium phase. Divergences between price and volume are not yet significant but could emerge in the next 24 hours.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart suggest support at 38.2% (~$0.01125) and 61.8% (~$0.01100) of the recent bearish swing from $0.01180 to $0.01065. While the price failed to find support at these levels during the early morning hours, the 61.8% level may become a critical area to watch for potential short-term bouncing or continued weakness. Daily retracement levels are less relevant in this context due to the prolonged downtrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI oversold condition (RSI < 30) observed on PEOPLEUSDT around 15:30 ET and 05:45 ET provides a potential entry point for a 3-day hold strategy. While the price failed to rebound decisively, the RSI signal alone could serve as a baseline for backtesting if applied consistently across a larger dataset. If the correct ticker for the Harbor Alpha Layering ETF (e.g., “HOLD” or an alternative data source) is confirmed, a similar strategy can be applied to generate historical signals. Alternatively, switching to a liquid ETF like SPY or QQQ would allow for a smoother demonstration of the workflow. If you prefer, you can also provide the specific dates when the RSI for “HOLD.P” hit oversold levels, and I’ll proceed directly to backtesting.