ConstitutionDAO/Tether Market Overview

• PEOPLEUSDT opened at $0.02139 and closed at $0.02021 after a 24-hour range of $0.02166–$0.0202.
• A bearish breakout below key support at $0.02135 accelerated selling pressure overnight.
• Volume spiked after 03:45 ET, with over 13 million USDT traded as the pair hit $0.02095.
• RSI entered oversold territory by 10:00 AM ET, signaling potential short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands widened in early morning, reflecting heightened volatility.

ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) opened at $0.02139 on September 18 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.02021 on September 19 at the same time. The pair reached a high of $0.02166 and a low of $0.0202. Total volume traded over 24 hours was 46.2 million USDT, with notional turnover amounting to approximately $968,000.

The pair exhibited a distinct bearish bias, characterized by a breakdown below the $0.02135 support level. This level had previously acted as a floor in early morning hours but failed to hold as a large-volume candle closed at $0.02123. A subsequent 15-minute doji near $0.02095 suggested indecision, but this was followed by a sharp decline into the early morning, confirming bearish control. A large red candle at 03:45 ET (closing at $0.02099) marked the peak of selling pressure, with the price then consolidating into a downward channel. Key resistance appears at $0.02136 and $0.0216, while support levels are forming around $0.0206–$0.0208 and $0.02035.

Structure & Formations

Bearish momentum was reinforced by a series of engulfing candles in the early morning, notably the candle at 03:45 ET that gapped down from the previous close. A key bearish reversal pattern emerged at $0.02135–$0.02136, where multiple attempts to reclaim the level failed, with volume surging on the breakdown. A morning doji near $0.02095 hinted at potential short-term support, but the bearish trend remained intact. The 15-minute chart showed a distinct bear flag forming, with the channel breaking down decisively after 04:00 ET.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA, confirming a short-term bearish bias. By 04:00 ET, the 50SMA had fallen below $0.0210, reinforcing the downward trend. On the daily chart, the 50DMA was at $0.0215, suggesting PEOPLEUSDT is trading below its key medium-term moving average. The 200DMA, at $0.0217, acted as a psychological resistance level during the previous day’s attempts to rally.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed bearishly below the signal line early on September 19, with bearish divergence forming as prices continued to fall while the MACD line remained flat. RSI dropped below 30 by 10:00 AM ET, entering oversold territory, which could support a short-term bounce. However, RSI failed to rebound above 40, suggesting bearish momentum remains dominant.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked early in the morning with a widening of the Bollinger Bands, indicating increased uncertainty and trading activity. By midday, the bands had begun to contract slightly, suggesting the market may be consolidating after the sharp sell-off. The current price sits near the lower band, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was particularly elevated during the breakdown below $0.02135, with the candle at 03:45 ET showing the highest volume of the day at 13.3 million USDT. This confirmed the breakdown’s legitimacy. However, volume has since decreased, with traders appearing to take a wait-and-see approach. The notional turnover peaked at approximately $26,700 during the same candle. A notable divergence occurred when volume dipped despite continued price declines after 06:00 ET, hinting at possible exhaustion in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the 15-minute swing from $0.02166 to $0.0202 as a reference, Fibonacci levels indicate a 38.2% retracement at $0.02098 and a 61.8% retracement at $0.02055. The price briefly touched the 38.2% level before continuing its descent, suggesting this level offered only minimal resistance. The 61.8% level currently appears as a potential short-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish breakdown and confirmation through volume and candlestick patterns, a backtest strategy might involve a short position on the breakdown of $0.02135 with a stop just above the previous high at $0.0215. A profit target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.02055, with a trailing stop initiated after the price breaks the $0.0210 level. This approach leverages key technical levels and volume confirmation while managing risk through stop-loss placement.