ConstitutionDAO/Tether Market Overview: 2025-10-29

• ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) declined 6.8% in the last 24 hours, closing at $0.01190 after a bearish breakdown from key resistance.
• Volatility spiked mid-session with a 15-minute move from $0.01255 to $0.01176, followed by a consolidation phase post-19:30 ET.
• RSI remains in oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce, though bearish momentum holds dominance.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction, hinting at a potential price breakout.
• Volume surged during the downward leg, confirming the bearish bias.

Market Snapshot

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-29, ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) opened at $0.01241, reached a high of $0.01255, and closed at $0.01190 after hitting a low of $0.01176. Total trading volume over the 24-hour window was approximately 196,470,000. Total notional turnover stood at around $2,353,114. The pair has remained under significant bearish pressure throughout the session, particularly after 19:30 ET.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a strong bearish continuation pattern, with a key breakdown below the $0.01216 level late in the day, confirmed by a high-volume candlestick. A potential bearish engulfing pattern emerged around $0.01204–0.01209, followed by a confirmation leg down to $0.01176. A doji formed near $0.01171, indicating a possible short-term equilibrium. Notable support levels lie at $0.01176 and $0.01156, with a key resistance at $0.01209.

Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA is bearish and crossing below the 50-period MA, reinforcing the downward trend. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA at $0.01206, 100 at $0.01225, and 200 at $0.01240—placing current price well below these levels, signaling a bearish phase.

The MACD shows a bearish crossover with a strong negative histogram, confirming sustained momentum to the downside. RSI has dropped to the oversold zone at 28–30, suggesting a potential short-term reversal or consolidation, though bearish conviction remains intact.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have recently narrowed following a sharp drop, suggesting a potential breakout. Price is currently sitting near the lower band, reinforcing the bearish bias. A widening of the bands is expected as the market regains volatility. The 15-minute Bollinger Band squeeze may lead to either a bearish or bullish continuation, depending on volume and order flow.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked during the bearish leg from $0.01255 to $0.01176, confirming the move down. The high-volume bars around $0.01190–0.01176 suggest strong selling pressure and a lack of buyers. Notional turnover also rose during this phase, aligning with the price action. Divergence between price and volume was not observed, which supports the continuation of the bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing high at $0.01255 and low at $0.01176, the 38.2% retracement is at $0.01225 and 61.8% at $0.01193. Price is currently near the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential bounce or further descent depending on order flow and sentiment. Daily Fibonacci levels show similar bearish bias with key support levels untested for the moment.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described aims to exploit bearish momentum using a combination of RSI and MACD. The strategy enters a short position when RSI drops below 30 and MACD turns negative, confirming bearish momentum. A stop-loss is placed above the nearest resistance or 1.5% above the entry, while a take-profit is placed at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Given the current RSI in oversold territory and a bearish MACD, the strategy would have triggered a short signal today. If executed, this could align with the recent breakdown and consolidation near $0.01190.