ConstitutionDAO/Tether Market Overview (2025-10-14)

• PEOPLEUSDT declined 3.6% in 24 hours, with bearish momentum evident in oversold RSI and expanding Bollinger Bands.
• Key support found near $0.0125, with 20-period MA diverging downward from price action.
• Heavy volume clustered during overnight selloff, suggesting capitulation pressure in the $0.0123–$0.0126 range.
• MACD histogram contraction hints at waning bearish energy, with potential for short-covering near 0.0131.

24-Hour Price Summary

ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) opened at $0.01324 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.01274 by the same time on October 14. The pair traded as high as $0.01397 and as low as $0.0123. Total volume for the period was 387,342,429.45, with a notional turnover of $5,189,938.39.

Structure & Formations

The daily chart shows a bearish breakdown from a prior consolidation range between $0.0135 and $0.0139. Key support levels identified include $0.0127 (psychological), $0.0125 (Fib 61.8% of the morning rally), and $0.0123 (session low). Resistance retested at $0.0131–$0.0134, where bearish engulfing patterns and long lower shadows suggest strong rejection. A notable bearish divergence appears on the RSI at 16:00–18:00 ET, which may signal exhaustion in the downward move.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute 20-period MA is trending lower, currently at $0.01296, below the 50-period MA at $0.01309, forming a bearish death cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at $0.01323, below the 200-period MA at $0.01363, reinforcing a long-term bearish bias. Price has remained below both indicators for much of the session, indicating weak short-term sentiment.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed below the zero line in the morning and remained bearish throughout, with the histogram peaking in negativity at $-0.00003$ at 02:30 ET. The RSI reached oversold territory (below 30) during the overnight hours, hitting 27 at 04:45 ET, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce. However, the bearish divergence observed on the RSI during the $0.0132–$0.0134 retests implies buyers may struggle to defend key levels without stronger volume confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the selloff, with price dropping from the upper band to near the lower band. The midline at $0.01295 now acts as a critical pivot point. A close above this level would indicate bear exhaustion; a break below would extend the range and target $0.0120.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the overnight hours between 02:00 and 06:00 ET, peaking at 26.8 million at 04:15 ET. This coincided with the largest price drop of the session. Turnover also surged during the same period, reaching $342,000 at 04:15 ET. However, volume has since contracted, with buyers absent at $0.0127–$0.0131, suggesting a lack of conviction in the potential rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the $0.0123 low to $0.01397 high identify key levels at $0.01315 (38.2%), $0.01293 (50%), and $0.01271 (61.8%). Price has stalled at both 38.2% and 50% levels in the afternoon, failing to hold above them. A break below $0.0125 would target the 78.6% level at $0.01206.

Backtest Hypothesis

To run an accurate back-test, we would identify every Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern on the 15-minute chart since 2022. These would trigger long entries with a 1-day holding period, and performance would be measured against the broader market and benchmarked against a buy-and-hold strategy. Given PEOPLEUSDT’s low volatility and bearish RSI divergence, such a strategy may be less effective in the short term unless a clear breakout above $0.01315 occurs.

Outlook

The market appears to be testing near-term support at $0.0125–$0.0127, with a potential bounce supported by oversold RSI levels. However, without a convincing volume rally, the bias remains bearish toward $0.0120. Investors should monitor 20-period MA retests and watch for divergence in the MACD. As always, volatility and sudden regulatory news pose unquantified risks.