Constellation Energy Slips 1.16% As Technical Indicators Signal Bearish Momentum

Constellation Energy (CEG) closed at $296.89 on June 13, 2025, marking a 1.16% decline. The stock exhibited significant volatility over the past year, rallying from under $200 in late 2024 to approach $350 by January 2025 before consolidating. Below is a technical assessment integrating multiple methodologies.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions show a bearish pattern emerging near key resistance. The June 13 candle closed near its low after rejecting the $300 psychological barrier, reinforcing the $294–$296 support zone established in early June. The June 12 bullish engulfing pattern failed to sustain momentum, and the subsequent bearish close suggests distribution. Resistance is firming near $301–$302, while decisive breaks below $294 could trigger accelerated selling toward the March swing low of $270.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA ($289) and 100-day SMA ($282) currently trade above the 200-day SMA ($256), confirming the primary uptrend. However, the price has recently hovered near the 50-day SMA with a slight close below it on June 13. This proximity signals weakening short-term momentum. A sustained break below the 50-day SMA could see a test of the 100-day SMA. The absence of a bearish crossover (e.g., 50-day under 200-day) still supports the broader bullish structure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a bearish crossover emerging, with the histogram turning negative on June 13. This aligns with slowing upward momentum after the early-June rally from $286 to $301. The KDJ oscillator reflects a similar narrative: the %K line (26) has crossed below the %D line (48) from overbought territory (>80 on June 6). This divergence suggests waning bullish energy. While not yet oversold, further deterioration in MACD histogram depth may signal additional near-term downside.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Band width contracted sharply in June, indicating reduced volatility. Price action has oscillated near the middle band (20-day SMA at $292), failing to challenge the upper band ($308). The June 13 close near the lower band ($278) coupled with the contraction suggests a volatility expansion is probable. A close below the lower band could signal a breakdown, while a rebound targeting the middle band may offer short-term relief.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume trends reveal weakening conviction during rallies. The June 12 surge to $301 occurred on 2.08M shares—below the 3.37M shares seen during the June 10 sell-off. This negative volume divergence reinforces resistance near $300. Recent distribution days (June 4, June 13) featured above-average volume, confirming selling pressure. Sustained rallies require volume expansion exceeding the 3.75M-share benchmark observed in prior upswings.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (52) resides near neutral territory but has trended downward from 65 on June 6. This decline during sideways price action implies latent bearish momentum. While not oversold (a level requiring sub-30 RSI), the current reading lacks bullish conviction. Should RSI break below 50 without corresponding price weakness, it may foreshadow a sharper correction. Note that RSI alone is not a timing tool but supports the thesis of eroding upside momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the March 2025 low ($266) and June 2025 high ($302), key retracement supports emerge at $284 (23.6%) and $275 (38.2%). The recent consolidation has held above the 23.6% level, but a breach may target $275. The 50% retracement at $284 converges with the 100-day SMA ($282), creating a high-probability bounce zone. Overhead resistance aligns with the 61.8% extension at $292, which capped recovery attempts in mid-June.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence is evident near $275–$285, where the 100-day SMA, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, and volume-based support converge. A bullish reversal in this zone would carry high technical significance. Divergences include weakening volume on up days versus down days and KDJ/MACD bearish crossunders amid elevated pricing. These suggest the current consolidation may resolve downward unless volume surges to reclaim $302. The RSI’s failure to exceed 70 during the June rally adds credence to the near-term caution.