ConocoPhillips Surges 3.5% Amid Venezuela Political Shifts: What's Next for Energy Giants?

Summary
• ConocoPhillips (COP) surges 3.46% intraday to $100.0487, breaking above $100 for the first time since late 2025.
• Venezuela’s political upheaval sparks speculation over $10B in seized assets and potential market reentry.
• Oil prices inch up 1.7% as global supply concerns linger despite Venezuela’s 1% production share.

ConocoPhillips’ sharp intraday rally has captured market attention, driven by geopolitical developments in Venezuela and renewed optimism over asset recovery. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $106.20, investors are weighing the implications of U.S. policy shifts and the company’s arbitration claims against the country’s oil sector.

Venezuela's Political Shifts Ignite ConocoPhillips Rally
The ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has reignited speculation that U.S. oil majors, including ConocoPhillips, could reclaim assets seized during Hugo Chávez’s 2007 nationalization. COP’s shares surged as investors priced in the possibility of recovering $10 billion in arbitration awards and reentering Venezuela’s 300 billion BOE oil reserves. While political uncertainty persists, the stock’s 3.46% gain reflects optimism that U.S. policy could facilitate asset restitution or joint ventures in the Orinoco Belt, despite oil prices remaining near $58/barrel due to Venezuela’s minimal current global supply impact.

Energy Sector Rally Gains Momentum as COP Outperforms XOM
ConocoPhillips’ 3.46% intraday gain outpaced Exxon Mobil’s (XOM) 2.31% rise, highlighting divergent investor sentiment within the energy sector. While both stocks benefited from Venezuela-related optimism, COP’s unique exposure to arbitration claims and potential Venezuela reentry justified its stronger performance. The broader sector’s rally, however, remains anchored to stable crude prices and cautious optimism about global demand recovery.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on COP’s Volatility
• MACD: 0.92 (bullish divergence from signal line 0.83)
• RSI: 49.98 (neutral, approaching oversold)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 97.16 (upper) vs. 93.64 (middle), indicating short-term overbought conditions
• 200D MA: 92.19 (price at 100.05 suggests strong breakout)

COP’s technicals signal a short-term bullish trend amid a long-term consolidation phase. Key support at $96.59 and resistance at $102.98 define the immediate trading range. With implied volatility spiking to 175% on options, traders should focus on near-term contracts with high gamma and moderate delta for directional bets.

Top Option 1: COP20260109C90 (Call)
• Strike: $90 | Expiration: 2026-01-09 | IV: 59.58% | Delta: 0.929 | Theta: -0.179 | Gamma: 0.0194 | Turnover: 54,496
• Payoff (5% up to $105.05): $5.05/share gain. This call offers high leverage (9.95%) and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a continued breakout above $102.98.

Top Option 2: COP20260109P93 (Put)
• Strike: $93 | Expiration: 2026-01-09 | IV: 30.66% | Delta: -0.029 | Theta: -0.018 | Gamma: 0.0184 | Turnover: 189
• Payoff (5% up to $105.05): $12.05/share gain. This put’s high gamma (0.0184) and low delta make it a volatility play, hedging against a pullback while retaining upside potential.

Action: Aggressive bulls should buy COP20260109C90 into a break above $102.98. Conservative traders may short COP20260109P93 if $96.59 support holds.

Backtest Conocophillips Stock Performance
The backtest of Coca-Cola's (COP) performance after a 3% intraday increase from 2022 to the present indicates mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is high at 53.37%, the returns over longer periods, such as 10 days and 30 days, are lower at 0.31% and 0.34%, respectively. This suggests that COP tends to perform well in the short term but may not sustain momentum over longer periods.

Position for COP's Volatility: Key Levels and Options to Watch
ConocoPhillips’ rally hinges on Venezuela’s political stability and the feasibility of asset recovery. With COP trading near its 52-week high and XOM up 2.3%, the energy sector remains cautiously optimistic. Investors should monitor $102.98 (intraday high) as a critical breakout level and $96.59 (support) for a potential pullback. Options like COP20260109C90 offer high leverage for bullish bets, while COP20260109P93 provides downside protection. Watch for U.S. policy clarity on Venezuela and COP’s ability to sustain above $100.05.