ConocoPhillips Rises 3.15% in Two Sessions as Technicals Signal Bullish Momentum

Conocophillips (COP) gained 0.94% in the latest session, marking its second consecutive daily advance with a cumulative 3.15% rally over both sessions. This upward momentum brings our attention to key technical dynamics influencing the stock's trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals constructive developments, with the last two sessions forming consecutive bullish candles. Significant resistance emerges near the $88.80-$88.90 zone, corresponding to the June 4 high ($88.87) and June 9 peak ($88.81). This barrier aligns with the swing low of $84.54 on May 30. A decisive close above $88.90 would signal bullish continuation potential, while failure here may retest support at $86.70–$86.80 (June 6 low).
Moving Average Theory
The current price ($88.04) trades above the rising 50-day moving average (~$87.00 estimate), suggesting short-term bullish momentum. However, it remains below the descending 100-day (~$91.00) and 200-day MAs (~$95.00), reflecting persistent medium-term bearish pressure. The 50/200-day configuration does not yet indicate a golden cross, requiring sustained upside to alter the broader downtrend structure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows early signs of a bullish crossover, with the histogram turning positive as momentum accelerates from May’s $84.54 low. KDJ oscillators have rebounded from oversold territory (sub-30 in late May), with the %K line crossing above %D and both rising toward 60. This synchronization suggests strengthening upside momentum, though neither indicator yet signals overbought conditions that would warn of exhaustion.
Bollinger Bands
The bands contracted noticeably in late May, indicating reduced volatility before the recent upside breakout. Price currently tests the upper band ($88.75–$89.25 estimate), which converges with horizontal resistance at $88.80–$88.90. This dual resistance increases the significance of this technical hurdle—rejection here could trigger mean reversion toward the 20-day mid-band (~$87.30).
Volume-Price Relationship
The advance on June 9 saw volume of 6.21 million shares, marginally exceeding the prior day's 6.04 million. This moderately rising volume on upside sessions lends credibility to the breakout attempt. Notably, the June 4 decline registered heavier volume (7.27 million), highlighting residual selling pressure at higher levels that remains a concern for bulls.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (~58) has rebounded from oversold levels below 30 in late May but remains below the overbought threshold (70). This positioning indicates room for further upside if buying pressure persists. RSI divergence did not materialize during May’s selloff, as momentum consistently aligned with price direction.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the May 12 high ($94.22) and May 30 low ($84.54), the 38.2% retracement rests at $88.24—aligning precisely with the current close ($88.04) and recent high ($88.81). This triple confluence (horizontal resistance, Bollinger band, Fibonacci) makes $88.20–$88.90 a critical tactical zone. A sustained breach would next target the 50% retracement at $89.40.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Critical technical convergence appears at $88.20–$88.90, where horizontal price resistance, the 38.2% Fibonacci level, and the upper Bollinger Band intersect. This raises the barrier’s significance for near-term directionality. Encouragingly, momentum indicators (MACD, KDJ, RSI) align with the recent rally without bearish divergences. Should volume expand on a confirmed breakout above $88.90, it could accelerate upside toward the 50% Fibonacci level at $89.40 and challenge the 100-day MA. Conversely, rejection at this resistance cluster may trigger a pullback toward $87.00 support.