Empieza a bajar ConocoPhillips un 2,59% por anticipación de las ganancias y la inestabilidad del sector

Summary
• ConocoPhillips (COP) trades at $92.50, down 2.59% intraday, with a 52-week range of $79.88–$106.20
• Options activity surges ahead of Feb. 5 earnings call, with 20 contracts trading at high leverage ratios
• Sector leader Exxon Mobil (XOM) declines 0.75%, signaling energy sector fragility
• Technicals show RSI at 66.75 (overbought) and MACD crossing above signal line, hinting at potential reversal

ConocoPhillips faces a sharp intraday selloff as investors brace for its fourth-quarter earnings report and 2026 guidance. The stock’s 2.59% drop to $92.50 reflects broader energy sector jitters, with Exxon Mobil also underperforming. Technical indicators suggest overbought conditions, while options data reveals aggressive positioning ahead of the Feb. 5 event.

Earnings Anticipation and Sector Weakness Fuel COP’s Slide
ConocoPhillips’ 2.59% intraday decline is driven by a combination of sector-wide headwinds and anticipation of its upcoming earnings report. The energy sector faces pressure from mixed oil price signals, with OPEC+ maintaining output cuts but geopolitical risks persisting. Additionally, the stock’s sharp drop aligns with broader market skepticism toward energy names, as seen in Exxon Mobil’s 0.75% decline. The selloff is further amplified by positioning in options contracts, with high leverage ratios and implied volatility ratios (IV) above 30% indicating aggressive short-term bets. The stock’s proximity to its 200-day moving average ($92.28) and key support levels (89.22–89.45) suggests a potential test of resilience ahead of the earnings event.

Energy Sector Volatility as XOM Trails COP’s Slide
The energy sector remains under pressure, with ConocoPhillips’ 2.59% drop outpacing Exxon Mobil’s 0.75% decline. While both majors face similar macroeconomic headwinds—ranging from oil price uncertainty to regulatory scrutiny—COP’s sharper move reflects investor concerns over its upcoming earnings report and 2026 guidance. The sector’s mixed performance underscores divergent strategies among E&P players, with COP’s recent $300–500 million subsea contract award failing to offset broader market caution. As OPEC+ holds firm on output cuts, the sector’s near-term trajectory will hinge on COP’s ability to deliver robust Q4 results and credible 2026 plans.

Options and ETF Plays for COP’s Earnings Volatility
• 200-day MA: $92.28 (near current price); RSI: 66.75 (overbought); Bollinger Bands: 84.46–98.18 (price near middle band)
• MACD: 1.45 (bullish divergence); 30D support: $89.22–89.45; 200D support: $92.50–92.97

ConocoPhillips’ technicals suggest a critical juncture ahead of its Feb. 5 earnings report. The stock’s proximity to its 200-day MA and key support levels (89.22–89.45) makes it a high-conviction short-term play. Aggressive traders may consider the COP20251226P90 put option (strike $90, IV 22.62%, leverage 205.11%, delta -0.23, theta -0.034, gamma 0.0929) for a bearish bet. This contract offers strong leverage and moderate delta, ideal for a 5% downside scenario (projected price $88.38), yielding a potential payoff of $1.62. For a more aggressive play, the COP20251226P92 put (strike $92, IV 22.93%, leverage 78.89%, delta -0.45, theta -0.0298, gamma 0.1192) provides higher gamma and theta sensitivity, with a projected payoff of $0.62 under the same scenario. Both contracts benefit from high liquidity (turnover $78,190 and $9,749, respectively) and moderate IV, making them viable for short-term volatility plays. If COP breaks below $92.50, the COP20251226P92 put offers a sharp downside capture, while bulls may target a rebound above $94.40 (intraday high).

Backtest Conocophillips Stock Performance
ConocoPhillips (COP) has experienced a significant intraday plunge of -3% on September 8, 2025, which raises the question of how the stock has performed after this event. To assess COP's recovery, we need to examine its price trend, technical indicators, and market dynamics from 2022 to the present day.1. COP's Intraday Plunge and Its Context: - On September 8, 2025, COP's intraday price dropped by 2.4% to $90.71, breaking below the 30-day support level of $93.88. - This sudden decline reflects a technical breakdown rather than a fundamental shift, as indicated by the bearish positioning in options contracts and technical indicators.2. Performance After the Plunge: - Following the -3% intraday plunge, COP's stock price showed a general decline from its 2022 levels. As of the latest data, COP's year-to-date performance and longer-term trends are not available, but the stock's trajectory would be influenced by the September 2025 downturn. - The broader energy sector's performance, including major players like ExxonMobil (XOM), is relevant to COP's trajectory. While XOM remained relatively stable with a minor gain, COP's decoupling from energy peers suggests sector-specific factors influenced its performance.3. Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment: - Technical analysis indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and Bollinger Bands suggest bearish momentum and oversold conditions. - The 200-day moving average of $96.11 and the 30-day support level of $93.88 are critical for COP's future direction. A break below the 200-day support could signal further declines.4. Backtesting Similar Scenarios: - Backtesting the impact of more extreme price drops, such as a 1588.85% 7-day decline, can provide insights into the resilience of COP and similar stocks under extreme market stress. - Such backtests help assess the robustness of investment strategies and the potential for recovery after unprecedented market events.In conclusion, COP's performance after a -3% intraday plunge on September 8, 2025, would be influenced by various factors, including technical indicators, market sentiment, and broader energy sector dynamics. The stock's trajectory from 2022 to the present would reflect the cumulative impact of these elements. Further analysis, including backtesting of extreme scenarios, is necessary to fully understand COP's recovery potential.

Position for COP’s Earnings Volatility: Key Levels and Options to Watch
ConocoPhillips’ 2.59% intraday drop sets the stage for a volatile earnings report and 2026 guidance update. The stock’s technicals and options data suggest a critical test of support at $89.22–89.45 and the 200-day MA ($92.28). Aggressive traders should monitor the COP20251226P90 and COP20251226P92 puts for short-term volatility plays, while sector watchers will note Exxon Mobil’s 0.75% decline as a barometer for broader energy sentiment. If COP fails to hold above $92.50, the COP20251226P92 put offers a high-leverage bearish bet. Conversely, a rebound above $94.40 (intraday high) could signal a short-covering rally. Position ahead of the Feb. 5 report and watch for a breakdown below $92.50 to confirm bearish momentum.