ConocoPhillips Drops 4.38% Amid Bearish Technical Signals And High Volume Selling

ConocoPhillips (COP) experienced a 4.38% decline to close at 94.65 in its latest session, with price action showing heightened volatility and increased trading volume. The following technical analysis evaluates the stock using multiple frameworks.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns reveal bearish momentum, particularly the sharp decline on September 3 with a long red candle closing near its low (94.65) after rejection near $98 resistance. Key support sits at the August 19 low of 93.19, backed by the April swing low of 80.8, while resistance converges near 99.65 (September 2 high), aligning with the psychological $100 barrier. The bearish engulfing pattern on September 3 indicates potential continuation of downward pressure.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day and 100-day moving averages (approximately 95.50 and 92.80) are trending below the 200-day average (est. 97.20), confirming a long-term bearish bias. Notably, the current close at 94.65 sits below all three key moving averages (50/100/200-day), with the 50-day poised to cross below the 100-day imminently. This death cross formation would signal reinforced bearish momentum across timeframes.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows accelerating bearish momentum as it extends below the signal line, corroborated by a KDJ reading near 20 (indicating oversold conditions). However, the KDJ's bearish crossover suggests oversold conditions may persist, with both oscillators lacking bullish divergence. This confluence warns against premature reversal expectations despite short-term oversold signals.
Bollinger Bands
Price breached the lower Bollinger Band (est. 95.50) with significant expansion in bandwidth, reflecting high volatility and bearish momentum. The decisive close below the lower band often precedes continuation moves, though such violations sometimes trigger technical rebounds. Volume-supported breakdown suggests the move may have sustainability.
Volume-Price Relationship
The 4.38% decline occurred on substantially elevated volume (9.78 million shares vs. 5.19M prior session), validating bearish conviction. Recent distribution patterns show consistently higher volume on down days compared to up days, indicating institutional selling pressure. This volume profile supports further downside potential near-term.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reading of approximately 45 remains neutral but is declining sharply from recent overbought territory. Caution is warranted as RSI frequently remains depressed during strong downtrends. A decisive break below 30 would signal oversold conditions, though the indicator has not yet reached warning levels.
Fibonacci Retracement
From the April low (79.88) to September high (99.65), key retracement levels are identified at 94.99 (23.6%), 92.10 (38.2%), and 89.77 (50%). The current price at 94.65 rests just below the 23.6% support, with a confirmed break potentially targeting 92.10. This coincides with the March swing high, creating a significant confluence zone of technical support.
Confluence and Divergence
Multiple indicators converge to suggest near-term bearish momentum, including: volume-supported breakdown below the 23.6% Fibonacci level, Bollinger Band violation, and moving average resistance. However, oversold KDJ readings and proximity to major Fibonacci support at 92.10 may limit downside. Critical divergence is observed in MACD and RSI, which have not confirmed new lows relative to price action - a potential early reversal signal if bullish divergence emerges. The 92-93 zone (38.2% Fib + August low) represents a pivotal support area where buyer interest may materialize. Absent catalyst-driven reversal, the technical structure favors further consolidation or downside toward the 92.10 confluence zone.