ConnectOne's 15min chart shows RSI overbought, KDJ death cross.

Based on the 15-minute chart for ConnectOne, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached an overbought level, and the KDJ Death Cross occurred on August 12, 2025 at 16:00. This indicates that the stock price has risen too quickly and exceeds the fundamental support, suggesting a shift in momentum towards the downside with the potential for further decline.

ConnectOne Bancorp (NASDAQ:CNOB) has been a subject of interest among investors due to its recent financial performance and significant merger activity. The company reported its second-quarter results on July 29, 2025, which included a notable acquisition of The First of Long Island (FLIC). This merger has had a substantial impact on the company's financial metrics and technical indicators.

Financial Performance

ConnectOne Bancorp reported a loss of $0.52 per share, which was $0.15 below expectations. However, operating earnings adjusted for one-time items related to the FLIC merger were $0.55 per share. The acquisition has significantly increased the company's scale, with assets now totaling $14 billion, placing it in the small regional bank category. The merger also brought in $11.3 billion in deposits, a substantial increase from the start of the year.

The FLIC merger has had a significant impact on ConnectOne Bancorp's net interest margin (NIM), which increased to 3.06% from 2.72% a year ago. This increase is primarily due to the purchase accounting following the acquisition. The company expects NIM to end the year around 3.25%, assuming a single Fed rate cut. However, with the expectation of two cuts, the NIM could come in between 3.20% and 3.24%.

ConnectOne Bancorp's net interest income (NII) grew by 20% sequentially to $80 million, with the majority of this increase coming from FLIC assets. The company also reported a 3.2% dividend yield, which is considered safe by analysts. The company's capital ratio is currently at 10.0%, down from 11.1% in Q1, but the quality of this capital position is strong.

Technical Indicators

In addition to the financial performance, technical indicators have also been closely watched. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for ConnectOne Bancorp has reached an overbought level, indicating that the stock price has risen too quickly. The KDJ Death Cross occurred on August 12, 2025, at 16:00, which suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside with the potential for further decline.

Conclusion

ConnectOne Bancorp has shown strong financial performance following its merger with FLIC, with significant improvements in NIM and NII. However, the overbought RSI and the KDJ Death Cross indicate a potential downside risk in the stock price. While the company's fundamentals appear strong, investors should closely monitor the technical indicators and the potential impact of Fed rate cuts on the company's financial performance.

References

[1] Seeking Alpha. (2025). ConnectOne attractive as M&A benefits appear. Retrieved from https://seekingalpha.com/article/4810376-connectone-attractive-as-m-and-a-benefits-appear

[2] Yahoo Finance. (2025). Don't race to buy ConnectOne Bancorp. Retrieved from https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dont-race-buy-connectone-bancorp-123412539.html