Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) Market Overview

Summary
• CFXUSDT fell 0.28% over 24 hours, closing at 0.0988 with total volume of 23.79M and turnover of $2.35M.
• Price broke below key support near 0.1030, signaling bearish momentum.
• RSI is oversold, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce or consolidation.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-11-09, Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) opened at 0.1033, traded to a high of 0.1045 and a low of 0.0972, before closing at 0.0988. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 23.79M, with a notional turnover of $2.35M. The pair experienced a clear bearish bias throughout the session, with a sharp drop from the midday peak to the overnight lows.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a strong bearish bias with a breakdown of key support near 0.1030. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged in the overnight session as price plummeted from 0.1031 to 0.0991 in a single 15-minute candle. The formation was followed by a continuation of bearish pressure into the morning hours, indicating a possible short-term exhaustion of buyers.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price has fallen below both the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, confirming a near-term downtrend. Daily averages (50/100/200) remain untested due to the rapid pullback, but the 50-day line currently sits at ~0.1050—well above current levels—suggesting further weakness may be expected should the trend continue.

MACD & RSI

The RSI is in oversold territory (~28), raising the possibility of a minor bounce or consolidation. However, the MACD remains bearish with a negative histogram, showing that momentum has not yet reversed. If the RSI fails to break above 30 without a corresponding rally, bearish pressure could dominate further.

Bollinger Bands

Price has traded near the lower band for the majority of the day, with volatility expanding as the downtrend intensified. The recent expansion suggests increased fear or uncertainty among traders, and price may remain near the band floor until a reversal pattern emerges.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly during the overnight selloff, particularly between 02:00 and 05:00 ET, where turnover spiked as price dropped from 0.1018 to 0.0991. The price-volume action was in confirmation, with heavy volume supporting the breakdown. A divergence would be needed to signal a potential reversal, but so far no such sign has appeared.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels for the recent 0.1045–0.0972 swing suggest key retracement levels at 38.2% (~0.0995) and 61.8% (~0.1015). Price currently sits near 0.0988, just below the 38.2% level, suggesting that a bounce to 0.0995 could be in play, but only if buyers show strength.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting engine was unable to generate actionable signals for a Bullish-Engulfing strategy due to an absence of valid patterns in the data. This could indicate either a low-probability pattern in the current timeframe or an overly narrow definition of what constitutes a “valid” engulfing candle. A wider search window, looser pattern criteria, or testing on other assets may yield more robust signals. The lack of actionable events suggests that the market has been trending with insufficient consolidation to trigger traditional reversal patterns.