Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) Market Overview

• Price fell from 0.1474 to 0.1382 amid rising volume, forming bearish continuation patterns.
• Volatility spiked during 22:00–04:00 ET as price dropped nearly 6% on increased turnover.
• Overbought RSI levels on the 15-minute chart failed to trigger reversals, suggesting bearish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the dip, indicating heightened uncertainty in the market.
• Volume surged to 5.2M at 12:30 ET, coinciding with a sharp decline to 0.1382, signaling strong bear pressure.

Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) opened at 0.1472 on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.1474, and closed at 0.1382 by 2025-09-25 12:00 ET. The pair hit a 24-hour low of 0.1368 amid heavy selling pressure. Total volume reached 135,495,730.0 with a notional turnover of $19,183,495.00. Price formation suggests a continuation of bearish sentiment.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a sharp bearish trendline from 0.1474 down to 0.1368, with several bearish candlestick patterns such as dark cloud cover and shooting star at key levels. A key support level appears to have formed around 0.1406, where the price found temporary buying interest. On the 15-minute chart, a bullish engulfing pattern at 0.1409 suggested a minor bounce, but bears quickly reclaimed control. The formation of a bearish flag pattern between 0.1443 and 0.1382 is likely to be a continuation signal, suggesting further downward bias.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA has dipped below the 50-period MA, indicating short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears to be approaching the 100-period MA from above, suggesting a potential convergence that could confirm a bearish shift if the 200-period MA remains as a hurdle. The price has spent most of the session below the 50-period MA, a sign of weakening momentum.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed below the signal line and entered negative territory, reinforcing bearish momentum. The RSI has spent the majority of the session below 50, with occasional spikes to the 60–65 range that failed to produce meaningful rebounds. While the RSI briefly approached oversold territory near 0.1382, it failed to trigger a reversal, suggesting that sellers are still in control.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the early morning hours (ET), coinciding with the price drop from 0.1443 to 0.1382. The price spent much of the session near the lower band, suggesting bearish dominance. A contraction occurred briefly at 0.1462 before the next major decline, a potential signal of a breakout or breakdown. The price has yet to show strength to move toward the upper band, indicating weak bullish conviction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 5.2 million at 12:30 ET during the sharp decline to 0.1382, confirming the move downward. The notional turnover also surged during that period, reinforcing the bearish bias. A divergence between volume and price was noted around 0.1424–0.1411, where volume was relatively low during a pullback, suggesting a potential false recovery. Overall, the volume profile supports the bearish narrative, with no signs of a short-covering rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 0.1474–0.1368 swing, 0.1424 corresponds to the 38.2% level, which the price briefly tested but failed to hold. The 0.1406 level aligns with the 61.8% retracement level and appears to be a key psychological and structural support. The 0.1432 level acted as a minor resistance during the afternoon bounce but failed to hold, indicating that bears are still in control. A retest of 0.1406–0.1411 may be expected with further downward movement.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could leverage the bearish momentum observed in this session by entering short positions when the price breaks below a key Fibonacci retracement level (e.g., 61.8%) with confirmation from bearish candlestick patterns and increasing volume. Stop-loss levels could be placed just above recent swing highs, while take-profit targets could aim for lower retracement levels or key support areas. This approach would align with the observed technical indicators and could help quantify the risk-reward profile for future trades in this pair.