Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-09-19

• Price dipped 8.9% over 24 hours, breaking below key support at 0.1845.
• Volatility surged in midday trading as CFXUSDT hit a low of 0.1772 before partial recovery.
• Volume spiked during bearish breakdown at 23:15 ET, confirming bear momentum.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions near 30, suggesting potential short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands tightened early, foreshadowing a sharp directional move.

At 12:00 ET–1, Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) opened at 0.1869, reached a high of 0.188, and closed at 0.178 at 12:00 ET after hitting a 24-hour low of 0.1772. Total 24-hour volume was 14,867,570.0, with a notional turnover of approximately $2,659,366 (based on volume × average price).

Structure & Formations

CFXUSDT experienced a sharp breakdown after forming a bearish engulfing pattern at 23:15 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment. A strong support level emerged around 0.1845–0.185, which failed to hold following a large-volume sell-off. The price then moved into a consolidation phase between 0.177 and 0.179, suggesting short-term buyers may enter near these levels. A potential reversal candle was seen at 05:00 ET, with a long upper shadow and small body, indicating rejection of lower levels.

Moving Averages

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed bearish alignment, with price settling below both after midday. On a daily timeframe, the 50- and 100-period EMAs continued to trend lower, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 200-period SMA acted as a dynamic resistance line, with price failing to recover above it after the breakdown.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in bear territory, with the histogram showing a contraction after the initial sell-off, followed by a modest expansion during consolidation. RSI dipped into oversold territory near 30 during the morning session, indicating a potential bounce but without a strong follow-through. Momentum remains weak, suggesting a continuation of the downward trend in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened significantly early in the session, indicating low volatility before the sharp sell-off. Price broke well below the lower band after 23:00 ET, signaling a high volatility expansion. The move below the lower band confirmed a bearish breakout, with price continuing to trade in a tight range within the bands in the final hours, suggesting exhaustion in the sell-off.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 23:15 ET, coinciding with the breakdown below 0.185. This was followed by a sharp drop in turnover during the consolidation phase, indicating reduced conviction from sellers. A divergence appeared between price and volume at 05:00 ET, with a small bullish candle forming on lower volume, suggesting the bearish trend could pause or reverse.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 0.1869–0.1772 move, the 61.8% retracement level at 0.1819 appears relevant in the near term. A bounce from this level could test the 78.6% level at 0.1848. On the daily chart, a 38.2% retracement of the recent downtrend could offer temporary support at 0.181, but confirmation will be needed.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could involve entering a short position on the 15-minute chart when price breaks below a key Fibonacci support level (e.g., 0.1845) with confirmation from a bearish engulfing pattern and a volume spike above the 50-period moving average. A stop-loss would be placed above the nearest resistance (e.g., 0.1865), with a target near the 61.8% retracement level (0.1819). This approach aligns with the recent price action and confirms the potential for a continuation of the bearish trend, provided volume remains above average during the move.