Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) Market Overview

• Price declined from $45.00 to $41.17 with key support around $41.40 and resistance at $42.00.
• Momentum weakened as RSI dropped below 30, suggesting oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded early, with Bollinger Bands widening, but has since stabilized.
• Volume spiked during the sharp decline but has since eased, indicating possible consolidation.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed after the initial breakout, signaling potential further downward pressure.

Market Overview Summary

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22, Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) opened at $44.33, reached a high of $45.00, and a low of $39.58, closing at $41.40. The total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 80,886.25 tokens, with a notional turnover of $3,346,134.37.

The price action over the past day reflected a sharp bearish correction, with the pair falling more than 8% from its intraday high. This was accompanied by a volume spike during the early morning hours, particularly around 06:15 ET, when the price dropped from $42.34 to $41.17 on a volume of 27,478.59 tokens. The price has since found a tentative floor around $41.40, with mixed candlestick patterns indicating potential for a short-term bounce or a continuation of the downtrend.

Structure & Formations

The price action shows key support and resistance levels forming over the past 24 hours. A strong bearish engulfing pattern developed between 06:15 and 06:30 ET, as the price fell from $42.34 to $41.48 on high volume. This is a strong indicator of bearish sentiment. A bearish doji formed at 06:45 ET ($41.78–$41.78), signaling indecision after the sharp move lower. On the upside, resistance levels appear to be forming around $42.00 and $42.34, with the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the recent high at $45.00 to low at $39.58 coming in at $42.29. A break of this level could trigger a countertrend rally, though bearish momentum remains strong.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming the bearish momentum. The 20-period MA was at $43.15, and the 50-period MA was at $43.55 at the time of the close. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is at $43.75, while the 200-period MA is at $44.50, indicating the price is well below its longer-term average and in a strong bearish phase. The 50/200 MA crossover has not yet occurred but is approaching as the price continues to fall toward the 200 MA.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and crossed below the signal line during the early morning sell-off, confirming bearish momentum. The MACD histogram has since shrunk, indicating that the momentum may be easing slightly. The RSI has dipped below 30, entering oversold territory, which suggests that the pair may be due for a near-term rebound or consolidation phase. However, bearish divergence in volume and price action suggests that the RSI reading may not be a strong enough signal for a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sharp decline from $45.00 to $39.58, with the Bollinger Bands widening. The price has since consolidated near the lower band at $41.40, indicating potential support. The middle Bollinger Band (20-period SMA) is currently at $42.30, and the upper band is at $43.20. If the price breaks below the lower band, it could signal further bearish extension, but a close back above the middle band may indicate a resumption of range trading.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp drop in price, particularly during the 06:15–07:15 ET timeframe, with the largest notional turnover occurring at 06:15 ET ($1,139,685.93). This volume was driven by a large single candle that dropped the price from $42.34 to $41.17. Since then, volume has declined, and the price has traded within a tighter range, indicating a lack of conviction in the bearish move. A renewed surge in volume may be required to confirm a continuation of the downtrend or a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the recent swing high at $45.00 and low at $39.58, the 38.2% retracement level is at $42.76, the 50% at $42.29, and the 61.8% at $41.81. The price has spent the last few hours trading below the 61.8% level and is currently near the 50% level. A break below $41.81 could confirm the continuation of the bearish move, while a bounce above $42.29 may indicate a short-term countertrend rally.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy would involve entering a short position on a confirmed bearish engulfing pattern or when the RSI drops below 30, as both have occurred on the 15-minute chart. A stop-loss could be placed just above the nearest resistance, currently at $42.00, with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $41.81. If the RSI remains in oversold territory for more than four consecutive candles, a long position may also be considered to capture a potential bounce, with a stop-loss placed below the recent swing low.