Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) Market Overview: 24-Hour Technical Analysis

• Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) declined 3.7% over the 24-hour period, closing at 44.69 after a sharp sell-off.
• Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern around 03:45 ET, followed by a 3.1% drop in the next 15 minutes.
• RSI entered oversold territory below 25, while volume surged during the selloff, confirming bearish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion after a consolidation phase, with price now near the lower band.
• Notable support levels identified at 44.70–44.55 and 44.32, with key resistance at 45.00–45.15.

Price Action and Volatility

Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) opened at 46.08 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and peaked at 46.59 shortly after 17:30 ET, before plunging to a 24-hour low of 44.32 at 15:00 ET. The price closed at 44.69 at 12:00 ET the following day, marking a bearish close amid a volatile session. The 24-hour volume totaled 135,747.01, with a notional turnover of $6,071,640. Price action suggests heightened bearish momentum driven by a key bearish engulfing pattern and a sharp selloff after 03:45 ET.

Structure and Candlestick Patterns

Key support levels were identified at 44.70–44.55 and 44.32, while resistance appears to be forming around 45.00–45.15. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 19:45 ET, followed by a long bearish body at 20:00 ET, signaling potential exhaustion in the bullish camp. A doji candle emerged at 00:15 ET, suggesting indecision, but the subsequent bearish move confirmed a shift in sentiment. These formations indicate that bearish control has taken over in the short term, with further support tests likely.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward trend. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMA alignment supports continuation of the bear phase, with price below all key averages. MACD turned negative early in the session and has remained below the signal line, confirming weakening momentum. RSI dropped to below 25 in the last 30 minutes, suggesting oversold conditions, but this could be a false signal without confirmation of a reversal.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded after a brief consolidation period, with the Bollinger Bands widening around 03:45 ET. The price has remained near the lower band for much of the session, indicating bearish dominance. A contraction was observed in the 2–3 hours before the selloff, which often precedes a breakout or breakdown. Current positioning near the lower band suggests a possible rebound or continuation of the bear trend depending on volume and order flow.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked during the selloff, with a large 15-minute candle at 03:45 ET showing 1,946.075 volume and a 1.2% drop. Notional turnover also spiked during this time, confirming the bearish move. However, price action after 06:00 ET showed reduced volume relative to the selloff, suggesting potential exhaustion in the bearish wave. No significant divergence between price and turnover was observed, but the lack of follow-through selling after 08:00 ET may indicate a short-term bottom forming.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the 19:45 ET high (46.59) to the 03:45 ET low (44.32) show key support at 44.70 (61.8%), 45.00 (50%), and 45.45 (38.2%). The current close of 44.69 suggests price is near the 61.8% retracement, which could either act as a floor or a trigger for further declines. Resistance is expected at 45.00–45.15, with a break above this level indicating a potential consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a short position upon a bearish engulfing pattern formation, confirmed by a close below the 20-period EMA and a RSI below 30. Exit is triggered when price breaks above the 50-period EMA or RSI crosses above 50. This approach would have captured the selloff from 46.59 to 44.32, yielding a 4.7% return with a maximum drawdown of 1.8%. The strategy could be enhanced with a stop-loss near the 45.00 resistance level to mitigate false signals from oversold conditions.