Compass Minerals International's 15-min chart indicates bearish trend with Bollinger Bands Expanding Downward.

Compass Minerals International's 15-minute chart has triggered a significant technical indicator, specifically Bollinger Bands Expanding Downward, accompanied by a Bearish Marubozu pattern at 07/08/2025 15:30. This development suggests that the market trend is currently being driven by strong selling pressure, with sellers dominating the market dynamics. Consequently, it is likely that this bearish momentum will persist in the near term.

Ferroglobe PLC (NASDAQ: GSM), a global producer of silicon metal and ferrosilicon/ferromanganese alloys, reported weak Q1 2025 results with revenue down ~32% year-over-year (YoY) to ~$307M and an adjusted EBITDA loss of ~$27M. The downturn was driven by collapsing prices and volumes in key products [1]. Despite these challenges, management believes the downturn is cyclical and expects a recovery, guided by recent trade protections and a strong balance sheet.

Ferroglobe's strategy focuses on leveraging its global footprint and integrated cost structure to navigate cyclical downturns. Key near-term catalysts include trade protections, such as heavy U.S. antidumping/countervailing duties on ferrosilicon imports and pending EU safeguards on silicon metal, which should reduce oversupply and stabilize pricing in H2 [1]. Ferroglobe's North American and European operations are well-positioned to benefit from these trade measures, allowing it to sell locally and avoid tariffs.

On the demand side, global steel output is roughly flat, but growth in emerging markets like India should support manganese alloys, while expected onshoring and EV-driven demand for aluminum may boost U.S. aluminum production [1]. Aluminum prices are rising, and U.S. aluminum makers have petitioned for similar trade protections, which could pull up silicon metal prices.

Management is also focusing on internal improvements, such as implementing a Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) process to better match production with demand and manage working capital. They have realigned the sales organization, cut labor and maintenance expenses, and managed energy costs through hedges. Despite these efforts, Q1 2025 saw an EBITDA loss due to high raw material costs and plunging silicon metal volumes [1].

Ferroglobe's balance sheet and liquidity are adequate for the current cycle. It reported about $129.3M in cash and $231.8M of total debt as of March 31, 2025, yielding a debt/equity ratio of only ~0.30×. The company has a net cash position, minimal debt service, and a credit line in Europe for flexibility. Management expects Q2 and Q3 to show marked improvement, reaffirming 2025 EBITDA guidance of $100-170M [1].

Despite recent losses, Ferroglobe's multiples are low, reflecting depressed earnings. Its EV/EBITDA of ~8× is below many diversified metals producers, but its conservative balance sheet provides a margin of safety relative to peers carrying heavy debt [1]. Key risks include commodity price volatility and trade-policy uncertainty.

In summary, Ferroglobe is positioned for recovery amid market challenges, driven by trade protections and internal improvements. However, the primary risk is a prolonged commodity slump. If prices or volumes recover as expected, Ferroglobe's earnings and cash flow should improve significantly.

References:
[1] https://seekingalpha.com/article/4798813-ferroglobe-positioned-for-recovery-amid-market-challenges