Commerce Ministry: Thai exports seen rising for rest of 2025

Commerce Ministry: Thai exports seen rising for rest of 2025

Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) is set to revise its 2025 GDP growth forecast following the U.S. confirmation of a 19% tariff on Thai exports. The NESDC released Thailand’s second-quarter GDP figures on Monday, alongside its updated economic outlook for 2025. Thailand’s economy is expected to maintain growth in the second quarter, after expanding 3.1% year-on-year in the first quarter. The momentum has been driven largely by strong exports, as Thai manufacturers accelerated shipments to the U.S. ahead of Washington’s tariff hike. In the first half of 2025, Thailand’s exports totalled $166.85 billion, up 15% [1].

At an earlier press briefing, the NESDC had already lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 2.3-3.3% (midpoint 2.8%) to 1.3-2.3% (midpoint 1.8%), reflecting uncertainty surrounding US trade measures. In its upcoming revision, the council may keep the forecast range unchanged but adjust its baseline assumptions, likely bringing the midpoint closer to 2% [1].

The move aligns with downward revisions by other Thai economic agencies, including the Bank of Thailand (BoT) and the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO). The BoT recently raised its growth projection to 2.3%, up from about 2% in April. However, the central bank warned that growth could slow to just 1.3% if trade negotiations with the U.S. break down [1]. Meanwhile, in July 2025, the FPO revised its forecast slightly upward from 2.1% to 2.2%. The adjustment was based on stronger-than-expected industrial recovery, improved export performance, rising household consumption, and continued momentum from both public and private investment in the second half of the year [1].

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) currently projects Thailand’s economy to grow around 1.8% in 2025. However, the IMF noted that its next assessment could see an upward revision, given Thailand’s stronger-than-expected export growth [1].

Despite the challenges posed by the U.S. tariffs, the Thai Commerce Ministry remains optimistic about the growth of Thai exports for the rest of 2025. The ministry expects exports to continue growing, driven by strong demand from the U.S. and other key markets. However, the ministry also acknowledged the need for Thailand to diversify its export markets and product lines to mitigate the impact of potential tariffs and trade disruptions [2].

The upcoming negotiations between Thailand and the U.S. over rules of origin will be crucial in determining the final tariff rates. The U.S. is demanding a minimum of 60% local content for products to qualify for the standard 19% tariff, with a potential 40% tariff for goods that fail to meet the new local content requirements. Thai officials are negotiating for a lower 40% threshold, but the final figure is expected by the end of August 2025 [2].

In conclusion, while the U.S. tariffs pose significant challenges to Thailand’s economy, the country’s strong export performance and optimistic outlook suggest that growth will continue in the second half of 2025. The key to Thailand’s future economic success lies in its ability to navigate the complex trade landscape and diversify its export markets.

References:
[1] https://theinvestor.vn/thailand-to-review-2025-gdp-growth-forecast-d16709.html
[2] https://www.nationthailand.com/business/economy/40054256