La estrategia de tokenización de Coinbase: Evaluando el camino de crecimiento desde $240 hasta $440

The investment case for Coinbase hinges on a powerful secular shift: the tokenization of real-world assets. Wall Street analyst firm Bernstein has framed this as a coming "supercycle" for 2026, a multi-year expansion that could redefine the company's growth trajectory. The thesis is built on a massive, expanding market.

The total addressable market for tokenized assets is staggering. Industry forecasts project the global market will grow at a compound annual rate of 60%, ballooning from around $25.8 billion in 2024 to an estimated $2.8 trillion by 2034. This isn't just a niche crypto play; it's about converting trillions in illiquid assets-real estate, private credit, commodities-into digital tokens on blockchains. The potential for improved liquidity and fractional ownership is a major institutional draw, with nearly 70% of deployed capital in 2024 coming from large investors.

Within this supercycle, Bernstein sees specific, near-term volume growth as a key indicator. The firm projects that total volumes in tokenized assets could more than double, rising from about $37 billion in 2025 to roughly $80 billion in 2026. Even more striking is the forecast for prediction markets, where Bernstein expects volumes to grow by 100% in 2026 to about $70 billion. This acceleration in on-chain activity is the engine that could drive Coinbase's revenue and market share.

Coinbase is positioned squarely at the center of this trend. Bernstein explicitly identifies the company as one of the "best tokenization proxies" alongside Robinhood and Circle, maintaining an Outperform rating. This designation is based on the firm's view that Coinbase's platform, tools, and infrastructure are critical for facilitating this asset conversion. The company's own initiatives, like its X402 agent payment protocol already tracking hundreds of millions in annualized transaction volume, are early signs of its infrastructure play. This deliberate infrastructure development underpins its strategic positioning in the tokenization space.

For a growth investor, the setup is clear. The tokenization supercycle represents a massive TAM expansion that could sustain high growth rates for years. Coinbase's role as a top-tier beneficiary means its current valuation and price targets are less about today's earnings and more about capturing a dominant share of this future market. The path from $240 to $440 hinges on the company's ability to scale its platform and tools to meet this explosive demand.

Scalability and Execution: From Vision to Revenue

The tokenization supercycle offers a clear path for Coinbase to scale beyond its legacy trading model. The company's growth story is now about building a platform infrastructure play, where its early regulatory head start and product launches create a scalable moat for capturing transaction fees as volumes explode.

A key pillar of this expansion is the projected surge in prediction market volumes. Bernstein forecasts these volumes will grow by 100% in 2026 to about $70 billion. For a platform like Coinbase, this translates directly into revenue. Based on that volume growth, the firm estimates the total annual revenue from prediction markets alone could reach about $1.4 billion. This isn't speculative; it's a quantifiable new revenue stream that leverages the company's existing user base and settlement infrastructure, moving it into a high-growth, non-cyclical segment.

Coinbase is also actively diversifying its payment rails to reduce reliance on volatile crypto trading cycles. The company is expanding into stablecoin payments and agentic payments, a move Bernstein sees as central to the 2026 supercycle. The firm notes that total stablecoin supply is expected to rise 56% year-over-year to about $420 billion by 2026, driven by cross-border payments and new protocols. Coinbase's own X402 agent payment protocol is already tracking hundreds of millions in annualized transaction volume, demonstrating early traction in this space. By embedding itself into these foundational payment layers, Coinbase positions itself to earn fees on a massive, growing flow of capital.

This infrastructure play is underpinned by a significant regulatory advantage. As a publicly traded, regulated exchange, Coinbase has a clear path to onboarding institutional capital into tokenized assets-a market where compliance is a major friction point. This head start allows it to capture transaction fees as real-world assets like U.S. Treasuries and equities move onto the blockchain. The scalability here is immense; each new asset class tokenized represents a new, high-margin fee stream for a platform that is already built for custody and settlement.

The bottom line for a growth investor is that Coinbase is executing a deliberate pivot. It is using its platform strength and regulatory credibility to build a scalable, multi-revenue business. The path from $240 to $440 isn't just about betting on tokenization volumes; it's about Coinbase's ability to capture a disproportionate share of those fees through its infrastructure and payment innovations. The company is moving from being a crypto exchange to becoming the essential plumbing for a tokenized economy.

Financial Impact and Valuation: The $240 to $440 Path

The financial path from today's price to Bernstein's $440 target is a direct function of the tokenization supercycle's execution. The stock's recent performance shows a market that has priced in significant uncertainty. Coinbase shares have fallen 41.79% over the past 120 days, trading near $240. This decline from a 52-week high of $444.65 leaves Bernstein's revised price target implying roughly 83% upside from recent levels. The setup is a classic growth investor's dilemma: the valuation is punishing, but the potential reward hinges entirely on the company's ability to transition its revenue mix before the broader market fully prices in the tokenization upside.

The key risk is not the size of the market, but the company's execution. Bernstein's thesis is built on a multi-front expansion-prediction markets, stablecoin payments, and real-world asset tokenization. Each of these represents a new, high-margin fee stream. Yet, they are still nascent. The scalability of Coinbase's transaction fee model is critical; revenue must grow proportionally with token volumes. The company's early traction with protocols like X402 is promising, but it must rapidly scale these operations to capture a dominant share of the projected $70 billion in prediction market volumes for 2026 and the broader tokenized asset market.

For now, the valuation reflects this transition risk. With a trailing P/E of 20.2 and a price-to-sales ratio of 8.5, the stock trades at a premium to many traditional financials but a discount to pure-play tech growth names. The market is clearly discounting the future. The path to $440 is not a bet on current earnings, but on Coinbase's platform becoming the essential plumbing for a tokenized economy. The company must successfully navigate this shift, converting its regulatory head start and product launches into a scalable, diversified revenue engine. If it does, the current price offers a compelling entry point for capturing a supercycle. If execution falters, the downside from here remains steep.

Catalysts, Risks, and What to Watch

The path from $240 to $440 is not a straight line. It will be validated or challenged by a series of near-term catalysts and risks. For a growth investor, the setup requires monitoring specific milestones that signal the tokenization supercycle is gaining real traction.

The most significant catalyst is regulatory clarity. Bernstein sees bipartisan crypto market structure legislation becoming U.S. law in 2026. This would be a major acceleration for institutional adoption, bridging public blockchains more fully into mainstream finance. It would directly facilitate the on-chain issuance of assets that Coinbase's platform is built to handle, turning a policy hope into a concrete growth driver.

On the company level, the critical watchpoint is quarterly revenue growth and its mix. The market is discounting the future, so investors must see evidence that non-trading segments are scaling. Specifically, track the contribution from stablecoin payments and prediction markets. Early traction with protocols like X402 is promising, but the company needs to demonstrate that these new fee streams are growing fast enough to offset any lingering weakness in legacy trading. Any quarter where revenue growth decelerates or the mix shows a lag in these new areas would be a red flag.

The primary risk is a slower-than-expected tokenization adoption curve. The industry's own data shows the path is not guaranteed. For example, a major European asset manager recently issued its first tokenized shares but projected a neutral market size for tokenized funds of just $120 billion by 2030. This is a fraction of the $2.8 trillion forecast by Bernstein for all tokenized assets by 2034. The gap highlights the execution risk: even with regulatory help, adoption hinges on traditional distributors like banks and brokers incorporating digital assets into their offerings. If this integration stalls, the projected volume growth for prediction markets and real-world asset tokenization could be delayed, prolonging the stock's underperformance.

In short, the catalysts are macro and regulatory, while the execution risk is operational. Watch for the passage of key legislation and, more importantly, for Coinbase's quarterly reports to show the new revenue streams gaining momentum. The stock's punishing decline from its 52-week high leaves little room for error; the company must prove it can capture the supercycle it is positioned to lead.