Coinbase Stock Surges 15.53% In Two Days As Technical Indicators Flash Bullish Signals

Coinbase Global (COIN) recently demonstrated strong upward momentum, rising 3.06% to $355.37 in the most recent session and achieving a cumulative 15.53% gain over the past two trading days. This analysis synthesizes key technical perspectives based on approximately one year of historical data.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns reveal significant bullish developments. The June 18th session formed a robust bullish engulfing pattern ($251.88 low to $299.32 high), completely overshadowing the previous day's losses. This was followed by consolidation and two consecutive bullish candles on June 24th ($311.90-$348.97) and June 25th ($343.62-$369.28), confirming upside momentum. Key resistance emerges near the recent $369.28 high, with substantial support established at the $295-$300 range, which aligns with the June 18th close and June 23rd swing low.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average structure reflects strengthening bullish alignment. Price currently trades above all key moving averages (50-day ~$291, 100-day ~$263, 200-day ~$241). The 50-day MA has crossed above both the 100-day and 200-day MAs, confirming intermediate-term bullish momentum. The 200-day MA has begun to slope upward after serving as support during early June consolidation near $240. This multi-layered moving average support suggests a well-defined uptrend, though a retest of the 50-day MA ($291) or psychological $300 level remains plausible for consolidation.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
Momentum oscillators show bullish but extended conditions. The MACD (12,26,9) exhibits a rising histogram above the signal line since June 18th, confirming positive momentum. However, this follows a significant MACD ascent from oversold territory, suggesting potential exhaustion near term. The KDJ indicator (particularly the %K and %D lines) is embedded in overbought territory (above 80) after sharp upward momentum. While both oscillators signal continued strength, their proximity to overbought extremes may increase vulnerability to a pullback or consolidation period to reset momentum conditions.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expansion is evident, with price breaking above the upper Bollinger Band ($345) on June 24th and 25th. This two-session band breakout reflects intense bullish momentum after bands contracted notably in late May and early June. The current price positioning near the upper band ($368) signals a stretched near-term condition. However, the band expansion itself validates the strength of the move. A consolidation phase bringing price back within the bands, potentially toward the middle band (~$315) or lower band (~$282), would constitute a healthy technical development.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume patterns lend strong validity to the recent surge. The June 18th 16.32% breakout occurred on significantly above-average volume (36.8 million shares vs. 30-day avg ~12 million). While the subsequent advance to $369 saw relatively lighter volume (29.7 million on June 25th vs. 29.7 million on June 24th), it still exceeded average levels. The volume spike on breakout days contrasts with declining volume during the prior consolidation, confirming accumulation. The sustainability of this rally requires ongoing volume support; a continuation on declining volume would raise caution flags.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (~72.5) recently entered overbought territory (above 70), underscoring the magnitude of the two-week advance from sub-$250 levels. While this warns of potential near-term exhaustion, it is crucial to note that RSI can remain overbought during strong trends, particularly in volatile assets like COIN. A pullback to reset RSI toward neutral levels (50-60) without significant price deterioration would likely reinforce the current uptrend rather than negate it.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the major swing low of $163.08 (Sept 30, 2024) to the recent high of $369.28 reveals critical support levels. The 23.6% retracement ($317) aligns closely with the June 24th low and psychological $300 level. More substantial support resides near the 38.2%-50% zone ($297-$266), which also encompasses the 200-day moving average and the June 18th breakout point. Any retracement holding above $297 would indicate ongoing bullish control, while a break below $266 would challenge the broader uptrend structure.
Confluence & Divergence Summary
Strong confluence exists around the $295-$300 support zone, reinforced by the 23.6% Fibonacci level, volume breakout point, and the psychological $300 level. Bullish confirmation arises from moving average alignment, MACD positivity, and volume-backed price action. Key divergences warrant monitoring: RSI overbought conditions against continued price gains, and decreasing volume during the most recent leg up to $369.28 compared to the initial breakout volume. These suggest potential near-term consolidation without necessarily invalidating the broader uptrend. The technical structure favors a "buy on pullbacks" approach toward key supports, contingent on maintaining above the $266-$297 confluence zone.