Coherent Surges 6.4% on Landmark Apple Partnership: A Semiconductor Breakthrough Unfolds?

Summary
• Coherent (COHR) surges 6.4% to $114.06, hitting its 52-week high of $114.26
• New multiyear supply agreement with Apple expands VCSEL production for Face ID and iPad features
• Trump’s 100% semiconductor tariff threat sparks sector-wide volatility, but Coherent’s U.S. manufacturing ties offer exemption potential

Coherent’s stock is surging on the back of a landmark partnership with Apple, which has secured a multiyear supply agreement for VCSELs critical to Face ID and iPad technologies. The stock’s 6.4% intraday gain has pushed it to a 52-week high, driven by both strategic business news and broader semiconductor sector dynamics. With Trump’s looming tariff threats and Apple’s $600 billion U.S. manufacturing pledge, Coherent’s Texas-based production facility positions it as a key beneficiary of domestic manufacturing incentives.

Apple’s Strategic Bet Fuels Coherent’s Surge
Coherent’s 6.4% rally is directly tied to its newly announced multiyear supply agreement with Apple, which expands its role in producing VCSELs for Face ID and iPad features. The partnership, highlighted by Apple COO Sabih Khan as part of its $600 billion U.S. manufacturing initiative, ensures Coherent’s Sherman, Texas facility remains a critical node in Apple’s supply chain. This agreement not only solidifies Coherent’s relevance in cutting-edge consumer electronics but also aligns with Trump’s tariff policies, which exempt companies investing in U.S. manufacturing. The stock’s surge reflects investor confidence in Coherent’s ability to capitalize on both Apple’s demand and the administration’s pro-domestic manufacturing agenda.

Semiconductor Sector Navigates Trump Tariff Threats as Coherent Leads
The semiconductor sector is in flux as Trump’s 100% tariff threat looms, but Coherent’s U.S.-based production and Apple partnership position it uniquely. While peers like Lumentum (LITE) trade flat (0.39% gain), Coherent’s stock outperforms due to its direct alignment with Trump’s American Manufacturing Program. The sector’s broader uncertainty—exacerbated by Trump’s conditional exemptions for U.S. manufacturers—creates a divergent landscape. Coherent’s Texas facility, producing 6-inch wafer VCSELs, contrasts with companies reliant on Asian foundries, making it a standout in a sector grappling with geopolitical trade risks.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Coherent’s Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 4.96 (above signal line 4.97), RSI: 63.29 (neutral), 200D MA: 86.10 (below price)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $114.06 (above upper band $110.57), Support/Resistance: 30D $106.72–$107.16, 200D $99.73–$100.96

Coherent’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish breakout, with the 52-week high of $114.26 acting as a key resistance. The stock’s 6.4% gain has pushed it above its 200-day moving average and into overbought territory on RSI, but the MACD crossover and Bollinger Band breakout indicate momentum. For traders, the 15 August options expiration offers high-liquidity contracts to capitalize on this move.

Top Option 1: COHR20250815C110
• Strike: $110, Expiration: 2025-08-15, IV: 83.80%, Leverage: 14.06%, Delta: 0.6327, Theta: -0.6136, Gamma: 0.0251, Turnover: 298,886
• IV (high volatility) suggests strong market expectations, Delta (moderate) balances directional risk, Theta (high decay) favors near-term moves, and Gamma (positive) amplifies sensitivity to price swings. Projected 5% upside (to $119.76) yields a payoff of $9.76 per contract, offering a 14.06% leverage boost.
Top Option 2: COHR20250815C115
• Strike: $115, Expiration: 2025-08-15, IV: 78.50%, Leverage: 22.12%, Delta: 0.4971, Theta: -0.5526, Gamma: 0.0284, Turnover: 124,011
• IV (moderate) and Leverage (high) make this ideal for aggressive bulls. Delta (0.5) and Gamma (0.0284) suggest strong responsiveness to price gains. A 5% upside (to $119.76) yields a $4.76 payoff, amplified by 22.12% leverage. This contract balances risk and reward for a continuation of the current bullish trend.
Action: Aggressive bulls may consider COHR20250815C110 for a near-term breakout above $114.26, while COHR20250815C115 offers leveraged exposure to a sustained rally.

Backtest Coherent Stock Performance
The 6% intraday surge in COHR has historically led to positive short-to-medium-term gains. The backtest data shows that following such an event, the 3-day win rate is 55.63%, the 10-day win rate is 59.60%, and the 30-day win rate is 66.23%. This indicates a higher probability of a positive return over the short and medium term. The maximum return observed was 16.14% over 30 days, suggesting that there is potential for significant gains if the momentum continues.

Coherent’s Breakout: A Semiconductor Powerhouse on the Rise
Coherent’s 6.4% surge is a testament to its strategic positioning in Apple’s supply chain and its alignment with Trump’s pro-domestic manufacturing agenda. The stock’s technicals—MACD crossover, Bollinger Band breakout, and 52-week high test—signal a strong near-term bullish case. While the sector grapples with tariff uncertainties, Coherent’s U.S.-based VCSEL production offers a unique advantage. Sector leader LITE (0.39% gain) pales in comparison to Coherent’s momentum. Investors should monitor the $114.26 52-week high and the 200-day MA at $86.10 as critical levels. For a continuation of the rally, COHR20250815C110 and COHR20250815C115 offer leveraged exposure to a stock poised to capitalize on both corporate and geopolitical tailwinds.