Coeur Mining cae un 7%: ¿Es esto debido a especulaciones relacionadas con la plata, o a una corrección en el mercado?

Summary
• Coeur Mining (CDE) trades at $18.245, down 7.06% from its $19.63 previous close
• Intraday range of $17.99 to $18.93 highlights sharp volatility
• DCF analysis suggests $29.86 intrinsic value, 37.7% undervalued
• Analysts warn of 'exuberant' silver speculation and liquidity risks

Coeur Mining’s 7% intraday plunge has ignited debate over whether the move reflects a correction in overbought silver speculation or a broader market reassessment. With gold prices retreating from record highs and sector peers like Newmont (NEM) also under pressure, investors are dissecting technical signals and options activity to gauge the next move. The stock’s 52-week range of $4.58 to $23.61 underscores its cyclical nature, while a $21.29 fair value estimate from Simply Wall St hints at potential upside—if liquidity risks abate.

Silver Speculation and Liquidity Concerns Weigh on CDE
Coeur Mining’s sharp decline stems from a confluence of factors: a senior mining analyst’s warning about 'exuberant' silver speculation, sector-wide liquidity strains, and gold’s retreat from $4,549/oz. While Coeur’s fundamentals remain intact—its 2025 share repurchase program and updated production guidance (415k gold oz, 18.1M silver oz) are intact—the market is pricing in a risk-off scenario. Analysts caution that crowded trades in junior silver miners could trigger a 'liquidity spiral' if sentiment reverses, amplifying volatility. This isn’t a fundamental breakdown but a liquidity-driven repricing of speculative positions.

Gold Sector Volatility Intensifies as Newmont Slides 2.96%
The broader gold sector is under pressure, with Newmont (NEM) down 2.96% as gold prices retreat from record highs. Coeur’s 7% drop outpaces NEM’s decline, reflecting its higher exposure to speculative silver flows. While NEM’s production of 5.8M gold oz in Q3 2025 remains stable, Coeur’s dual focus on gold and silver makes it more sensitive to silver’s 3.8% intraday drop. The sector’s mixed performance highlights diverging risk profiles: large-cap miners like NEM offer stability, while mid-tier players like CDE face liquidity-driven swings.

Bearish Options and ETFs: Navigating CDE’s Volatile Repricing
• RSI: 69.6 (overbought) • MACD: 0.63 (bullish) • 200D MA: $12.23 (far below) • Bollinger Bands: $15.40–$20.03 (current price near lower band)

Coeur Mining’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias despite a long-term bullish trend. Key support levels at $16.02 (30D) and $8.83 (200D) could dictate near-term direction. The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) offers sector exposure, though its -2.96% move mirrors CDE’s weakness. For options, two contracts stand out:

• CDE20260116P17: Put option with 95.45% price change ratio, 42.15% leverage, and 76.63% IV. Delta of -0.28 and theta of -0.0156 suggest moderate time decay but strong gamma (0.1469) for price sensitivity. Turnover of 2,456 contracts indicates liquidity. A 5% downside to $17.33 would yield $0.67 profit (max $17 strike - $17.33).
• CDE20260116P17.5: Put with 95.45% price change ratio, 42.15% leverage, and 76.63% IV. Delta of -0.28 and theta of -0.0156, but higher gamma (0.1469). Turnover of 2,456. A 5% move to $17.33 would yield $1.17 profit (max $17.5 strike - $17.33).

Aggressive bears should target CDE20260116P17 for a 5% downside play, leveraging high gamma and liquidity. Watch for a breakdown below $16.02 to confirm bearish momentum.

Backtest Coeur Mining Stock Performance
The CDE ETF has experienced a total of 498 intraday percentage changes of -7% or more since 2022. Over various time frames, the win rates and returns following these events indicate a generally positive short-to-medium-term performance. The maximum return during the backtest period was 14.13%, which occurred on day 59 after the event, highlighting the potential for substantial rebounds after significant pullbacks.

Coeur Mining at Crossroads: Liquidity Risks vs. DCF Upside
Coeur Mining’s 7% drop reflects a liquidity-driven correction rather than a fundamental breakdown. While the DCF model suggests $29.86 intrinsic value, near-term risks from crowded silver trades and gold’s pullback remain. Investors should monitor Newmont’s -2.96% move as a sector barometer and watch CDE’s support at $16.02. For those with a longer-term view, the $21.29 fair value estimate offers a 14% upside if liquidity stabilizes. Act now: Short-term bears target CDE20260116P17, while DCF believers consider buying dips near $16.02.