Clover Health Soars 11.8% on Historic Medicare Membership Surge – Is This the Catalyst for a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Clover Health (CLOV) surges 11.8% intraday, trading at $2.84 amid a 53% YoY Medicare Advantage membership jump.
• Company forecasts first-ever full-year GAAP net income in 2026, driven by 153,000 members and 97% PPO plan retention.
• Technicals show a bullish breakout above 200-day MA ($2.95) and a short-term RSI of 46.43, hinting at potential reversal.

Clover Health’s stock is in a frenzy as a landmark Medicare Advantage membership expansion fuels optimism about 2026 profitability. The stock’s 11.8% surge—trading between $2.68 and $2.87—reflects investor confidence in the company’s ability to leverage its PPO plan dominance and operational efficiencies. With the healthcare sector under pressure from ACA enrollment declines, Clover’s core-market growth and 4.0 Stars rating position it as a standout play.

Medicare Membership Surge Ignites Clover Health's 11.8% Rally
Clover Health’s 11.8% intraday surge is directly tied to its 53% YoY Medicare Advantage membership growth, reaching 153,000 members as of January 1, 2026. The company’s announcement of first-ever full-year GAAP net income in 2026—backed by 97% PPO plan retention and a 4.0 Stars rating—has rekindled investor optimism. This growth, concentrated in core markets with stable benefits, signals improved cohort economics and operational leverage. The stock’s breakout above its 200-day moving average ($2.95) and a short-term RSI of 46.43 further validate the bullish momentum.

Health Care Plans Sector Mixed as Clover Outpaces UNH's Modest Gains
The Health Care Plans sector faces headwinds as ACA enrollment declines 3.5% year-to-date, with UnitedHealth Group (UNH) up just 1.23% intraday. Clover’s 11.8% rally starkly contrasts this stagnation, driven by its Medicare Advantage focus and 4.0 Stars rating. While ACA subsidies lapse weigh on broader enrollment, Clover’s core-market expansion and PPO plan dominance position it as a counter-trend winner. The sector’s mixed performance underscores Clover’s unique value proposition in a fragmented market.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Gamma-Driven Bets for Clover’s Breakout
• Technical Indicators: 200-day MA: $2.95 (below current price); RSI: 46.43 (neutral); MACD: -0.013 (bearish divergence).
• Key Levels: Support at $2.54 (previous close), resistance at $3.00 (52W high).
• Short-Term Outlook: A bullish engulfing pattern and rising gamma suggest momentum could extend toward $3.00.

Top Options:
• CLOV20260123C2.5 (Call, $2.5 strike, Jan 23 expiry):
- IV: 27.14% (moderate)
- LVR: 8.00%
- Delta: 0.995 (deep in-the-money)
- Theta: -0.0105 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.117 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 5,308 (liquid)
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($2.98), intrinsic value = $0.48 per share.
- Why: High gamma and liquidity make this ideal for a short-term rally.

• CLOV20260220C3 (Call, $3 strike, Feb 20 expiry):
- IV: 68.00% (elevated)
- LVR: 16.47%
- Delta: 0.426 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.0043 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.638 (very high)
- Turnover: 30,111 (highly liquid)
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($2.98), intrinsic value = $0.00 (out-of-the-money).
- Why: High gamma and leverage suit aggressive bulls targeting a $3.00 breakout.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider CLOV20260220C3 into a test of $3.00, while conservative traders can use CLOV20260123C2.5 for immediate gains.

Backtest Clover Health Stock Performance
The backtest of CLOV's performance after a 12% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 45.53%, the 10-Day win rate is 49.02%, and the 30-Day win rate is 47.71%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 8.05%, which occurred on day 58, suggesting that CLOV can capitalize on intraday surges with favorable long-term outcomes.

Bullish Momentum Intact – Key Levels to Watch Before 2026 Profitability
Clover Health’s 11.8% rally is a testament to its 53% Medicare Advantage growth and 2026 profitability roadmap. The stock’s short-term bullish engulfing pattern and rising gamma suggest a test of $3.00 is likely, though the 200-day MA ($2.95) remains a critical support. Investors should monitor the $2.50 strike for put buying if volatility spikes. Meanwhile, UnitedHealth Group’s 1.23% gain highlights sector-wide optimism, but Clover’s core-market focus and PPO dominance make it a standout. Watch for a $3.00 breakout or a breakdown below $2.50 to define the next phase.