CTOR Crashes 34%—Is This the Breaking Point for Citius Oncology?

• CTOR plummets 33.94% to $1.863, hitting a fresh intraday low of $1.82
• Filed $15M S-1 offering amid $112 cash shortfall and $13.8M Eisai payments due
• Technical breakdown below $2.43 support triggers bearish pivot sell signal
• Sector muted: Biotech leader AMGN dips 0.04%

Citius Oncology’s stock is caught in a liquidity storm, with a dramatic selloff erasing over a third of its value in a single session. The plunge follows a confirmed breakdown below critical support levels, conflicting technical signals, and looming cash crunch risks. Traders now brace for a potential bearish regime shift or a rebound above $2.94—a level that could redefine near-term momentum.

Breakdown Below Critical Support Triggers Bearish Sell-Off
The selloff was catalyzed by a breach of the $2.43 short-term support—a key pivot point identified by analysts as a buy zone. This breakdown activated a bearish sell signal from the July 3 pivot top, which had already marked a 46.69% decline into the session. While CTOR benefits from a bullish MA crossover (short-term above long-term), the breakdown below its rising trendline and MACD divergence (histogram contracting to -0.14) signal fading momentum. The stock’s plunge below its 200-day average ($1.26) and extreme undervaluation at the lower Bollinger Band ($0.49) amplified panic. Compounding pressure: the S-1 filing’s modest $15M raise falls short of covering $40M+ near-term obligations, raising red flags about liquidity sustainability.

Fade the Bounce—Short $CTOR Below $2.29 Support
• Technical Indicators:
- 30D MA: $2.53 (resistance)
- 200D MA: $1.26 (long-term support)
- RSI: 51.62 (neutral, near midpoint)
- Bollinger Bands: Current price near lower band ($0.49)—extreme undervaluation signal
- MACD: 0.67 vs signal line 0.81 (bearish contraction)

Traders should prioritize risk management. A close below $2.18 confirms a bearish shift; a rebound above $2.94 invalidates the downtrend. The recommended stop-loss at $2.65 underscores volatility risk.

Hypothetical Options Plays (if existed):
- Put Option: CTOR20250720P220 (Strike $2.20)
- Implied Volatility: 49%
- Gamma: ≥0.008 (sensitive to price swings)
- Theta: ≥0.03 (time decay advantage)
- Why: Captures further downside; payoff at $2.18 yields 100%+ return.
- Call Option: CTOR20250720C250 (Strike $2.50)
- Implied Volatility: 35%
- Gamma: 0.005 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: 0.015 (lower time decay)
- Why: Limited upside exposure if volatility rebounds.

Payoff Primer: In a 5% downside scenario ($1.77 ST), P220 payoff = $0.43 vs C250 payoff = $0.

Hook: Fade rallies below $2.29—short $CTOR20250720P220 if support collapses.

Backtest Citius Oncology Stock Performance
The CTOR ETF has historically shown resilience after experiencing a significant intraday plunge of at least -34%. The backtest data reveals that the 3-day win rate is 39.17%, the 10-day win rate is 47.50%, and the 30-day win rate is 40.00%, indicating that the ETF tends to rebound over various short-term horizons. The maximum return during the backtest period was 2.46%, which occurred on day 58 after the initial plunge, suggesting that while the ETF may experience some recovery, the returns are generally modest in the short term.

CTOR's Fate Hangs on $2.29 Support—Beware the Bearish Shift
Citius Oncology faces a pivotal juncture. A close below $2.18 signals a bearish regime shift, while a rebound above $2.94 revives short-term bullish momentum. Traders must monitor the $2.29 support zone—a breakdown here could trigger a 50%+ retracement from May’s highs. With AMGN’s muted 0.04% dip underscoring sector volatility, CTOR’s liquidity risks and S-1 uncertainties loom large. Action Insight: Set stops below $2.18; watch FDA headlines and LYMPHIR’s commercial launch timeline. This is a stock where volatility trumps fundamentals—proceed with caution.