Citi: Tokenized Bank Deposits Could Outpace Stablecoins by 2030

Citibank has revised its forecast for the stablecoin market, projecting a potential surge in issuance to $1.9 trillion in its base case and $4 trillion in a bull case by 2030Stablecoin Market Could Reach $4 Trillion by 2030, Citi Says^[1]. This represents an upward adjustment from prior estimates of $1.6 trillion and $3.7 trillion, respectively, reflecting robust 2025 growth and increased activity from both crypto-native firms and traditional financial institutionsCiti projects $1.9 trillion stablecoin boom by 2030^[2]. The market’s current stablecoin issuance has already expanded from approximately $200 billion at the start of 2025 to $280 billion, underscoring accelerated adoptionStablecoin Market Could Reach $4 Trillion by 2030, Citi Says^[1].

The report highlights stablecoins as a "catalyst for blockchain’s ChatGPT moment" in institutional adoption, drawing parallels to the early internet boomCiti projects $1.9 trillion stablecoin boom by 2030^[2]. If stablecoins achieve transaction velocity akin to fiat currencies, they could facilitate up to $100 trillion in annual transactions under the base case, doubling to $200 trillion in the bull caseStablecoin Market Could Reach $4 Trillion by 2030, Citi Says^[1]. This growth is attributed to blockchain’s role in reimagining financial infrastructure, with stablecoins, bank tokens, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) likely to coexist in distinct nichesStablecoin Market Could Reach $4 Trillion by 2030, Citi Says^[1].

However, the analysis cautions that stablecoins may not dominate all on-chain finance. Tokenized bank deposits, which offer regulatory safeguards and real-time settlement, could surpass stablecoins in transaction volumes by 2030Stablecoin Market Could Reach $4 Trillion by 2030, Citi Says^[1]. Corporate demand for compliance and embedded security is driving this shift, with Citi estimating that a "small migration of traditional banking rails on-chain" could push bank token turnover beyond $100 trillion by the decade’s endStablecoin Market Could Reach $4 Trillion by 2030, Citi Says^[1].

The U.S. dollar remains central to the on-chain economy, with most stablecoin activity dollar-denominated. This has fueled demand for U.S. Treasuries, though hubs like China Hong Kong and the UAE are emerging as centers for stablecoin experimentationStablecoin Market Could Reach $4 Trillion by 2030, Citi Says^[1]. Citi frames the rise of stablecoins not as a threat to traditional banking but as part of a broader reimagining of financial systemsStablecoin Market Could Reach $4 Trillion by 2030, Citi Says^[1].

Regulatory developments and institutional adoption will be critical to the market’s trajectory. While stablecoins face scrutiny over reserves and oversight, they are gaining traction in cross-border payments and e-commerce. Retailers like Walmart and Amazon are exploring proprietary stablecoins, while regulators in the U.S. and abroad weigh clearer frameworksCiti projects $1.9 trillion stablecoin boom by 2030^[2]. Despite these advancements, Citi emphasizes that stablecoins are not a "magic solution" for all financial challenges, noting that domestic payment systems already offer real-time, low-cost alternatives in many marketsCiti projects $1.9 trillion stablecoin boom by 2030^[2].