Citi strategist Eric Lee sees $60 Brent oil again, despite broader bearish sentiment.

Citi strategist Eric Lee sees $60 Brent oil again, despite broader bearish sentiment.

In an environment marked by broader bearish sentiment, Citi strategist Eric Lee has forecasted that Brent crude oil prices could fall to $60 per barrel. This prediction comes amidst a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainties, such as the ongoing US-China trade talks and the potential easing of tariffs, which have been impacting oil prices.

According to Lee, the recent decrease in oil prices to four-year lows, driven by investor concerns about global demand and financial market sell-offs, could be exacerbated by potential supply increases from OPEC+ and the US. The OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has announced plans to expand its production increase to 411,000 barrels per day, significantly exceeding the original plan of 138,000 barrels per day [1].

Goldman Sachs analysts have also predicted that Brent crude oil prices could drop to $58 per barrel by 2026, with further declines to $40 or even below in extreme cases [1]. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has lowered its oil price forecast from $74 per barrel in March to $68 per barrel in April, and anticipates that global oil inventories will increase starting from the middle of this year [1].

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2025 from 1.5% to 0.3% [1]. Additionally, the IEA predicts that the growth of global natural gas demand will slow down to below 2% in 2025, with Asia accounting for nearly 45% of the incremental natural gas demand [1].

Despite these bearish indicators, Lee's forecast suggests a potential stabilization or even recovery in oil prices, which could be attributed to the possibility of a resolution in the US-China trade dispute. The constructive meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Trump envoy Steve Witkoff has also raised hopes for a resolution to the war in Ukraine, which could potentially add to global oil supplies [2].

The oil market remains volatile, with prices influenced by a combination of supply growth, demand decline, and geopolitical factors. Investors and financial professionals should closely monitor these developments and consider the potential implications for their portfolios.

References:
[1] https://nai500.com/blog/2025/04/oil-and-natural-gas-price-forecast-for-2025%EF%BC%88updated-in-april%EF%BC%89/
[2] https://www.livemint.com/market/commodities/crude-oil-logs-weekly-decline-on-opec-supply-us-china-trade-talks-brent-at-66-wti-down-3-in-5-days-11745660403394.html