Circle Plunges 9.1% to 139.23 as Bearish Momentum Intensifies With 14.69% Two-Day Drop

Circle (CRCL) concluded the latest session with a sharp 9.10% decline to 139.23, extending its losing streak to two consecutive days with a cumulative 14.69% drop. This pronounced downward momentum forms the baseline for our technical assessment.
Candlestick Theory
The recent price action reveals two consecutive long-bodied bearish candles with minimal lower wicks, underscoring sustained selling pressure. The 156.8 high from the most recent session now serves as immediate resistance, while the 136.4 intraday low establishes critical short-term support. A sustained break below 136.4 could accelerate declines, whereas recovery above 156.8 may signal temporary relief. The absence of reversal patterns like hammers or bullish engulfing suggests bearish dominance persists.
Moving Average Theory
Circle trades well below its key moving averages, confirming entrenched bearish momentum. The 50-day MA (approximated at 178) and 100-day MA (near 192) slope downward, with the 200-day MA (around 185) flattening—a configuration typical of intermediate-term downtrends. The widening gap between shorter and longer-term averages highlights accelerating selling pressure. Any rebound would face layered resistance near 162.8 (20-day EMA) and 178 (50-day MA).
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram remains deep in negative territory, with both signal and MACD lines trending below zero—confirming robust bearish momentum. KDJ oscillators (%K: 18, %D: 23, J: 8) reside in oversold territory, though without bullish divergence. While this indicates potential exhaustion, the lack of reversal signals in either oscillator suggests downward inertia may persist. Traders should monitor for MACD histogram convergence or KDJ bullish crosses as early reversal cues.
Bollinger Bands
Circle’s price breached the lower Bollinger Band (138.5) intraday before closing just above it, signaling extreme oversold conditions. Bandwidth expansion to 22%—the widest in 30 sessions—indicates volatility climax. Historically, such events precede either aggressive continuation or technical rebounds. A reversion toward the 20-day midpoint (162.8) is plausible, but sustained trading below the lower band may trigger cascading stops.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged to 17.3 million shares during the latest sell-off—20% above the 30-day average—confirming conviction behind the breakdown. However, the preceding rally attempts (e.g., Aug 12 +1.27% on 33.5M volume) failed to sustain momentum, revealing weak accumulation. This distribution pattern—high volume on down days, unconvincing volume on rallies—validates the bearish structure.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (19.5) is deeply oversold, approaching levels last seen during June’s capitulation. While sub-30 readings typically warn of reversals, the indicator has remained suppressed for three sessions without divergence, suggesting more downside may precede relief. Historical precedent shows RSI can linger below 20 during high-momentum declines, making this a cautionary—not predictive—signal.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the dominant downtrend from the June 23 peak (298.99) to the current low (136.4) reveals critical retracement levels: 174.8 (23.6%), 198.5 (38.2%), and 217.7 (50%). These converge powerfully with moving averages and prior support/resistance zones, particularly 174.8–178 (aligning with the 20-day/50-day MAs). Until Circle reclaims the 23.6% level, the path of least resistance remains southbound.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluence reinforces resistance between 174.8–178, where Fibonacci, moving averages, and the July swing low intersect. Bearish alignment dominates across oscillators and trend-following tools. A notable divergence exists between oversold RSI/KDJ readings and uninterrupted price declines—often a precursor to short-covering bounces, though insufficient alone to confirm reversals. Volume patterns and MACD corroborate the primary downtrend.
Final Synthesis
Circle exhibits extreme bearish momentum with oversold secondary signals warning of potential technical rebounds. Critical support at 136.4 must hold to avoid another breakdown leg, while resistance tiers loom at 156.8, 162.8, and 174.8. The confluence of Fibonacci levels with moving averages near 178 establishes a formidable recovery hurdle. Until bullish volume expansion coincides with candlestick reversal patterns, tactical rallies remain sell opportunities within the broader downtrend.