Circle (CRCL) Plummets 5.8% on Intraday Volatility: What's Driving the Selloff?

Summary
• CRCL drops 5.8% to $125.93, breaking below key support levels
• Intraday range spans $124.5–$134.7, signaling sharp reversal
• Sector leader PayPal (PYPL) declines 0.57%, contrasting CRCL's selloff

Circle (CRCL) is experiencing a dramatic intraday selloff, with shares plunging 5.8% to $125.93 as of 5:38 PM. The stock has swung from a $134.7 high to a $124.5 low, reflecting intense short-term volatility. While the Financial Technology sector shows mixed momentum, CRCL's collapse stands out amid elevated options activity and bearish technical indicators.

Technical Pressures and Options Activity Fuel CRCL's Sharp Drop
CRCL's 5.8% intraday decline is driven by a confluence of technical breakdowns and aggressive short-term options positioning. The stock has pierced below the 30-day support range of $130.94–$132.36 and is now testing the Bollinger Band lower bound at $107.47. Options data reveals heavy put buying at strike prices $120–$125, with contracts like CRCL20250919P120 (85.38% implied volatility) and CRCL20250919P125 (85.17% IV) showing high turnover. The MACD histogram (-11.45) and RSI (51.31) suggest bearish momentum is gaining traction as the stock approaches its 52-week low of $64.

Financial Tech Sector Mixed as PayPal Holds Steady
While CRCL's 5.8% drop is extreme, the broader Financial Technology sector shows resilience. Sector leader PayPal (PYPL) is down just 0.57%, indicating CRCL's selloff is stock-specific rather than sector-driven. The divergence suggests CRCL's decline stems from technical exhaustion and options-driven shorting rather than systemic fintech sector weakness. However, CRCL's collapse could create a ripple effect if it triggers further short-covering or margin calls in leveraged positions.

Bearish Options and ETF Positioning in a Volatile CRCL Environment
• 30-day MA: $139.49 (well below current price)
• RSI: 51.31 (neutral but trending lower)
• MACD: -11.45 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $107.47–$148.83 (CRCL at 124.5, near lower band)

CRCL's technical profile suggests a high-probability continuation of the selloff, with critical support at $120–$125. The 200-day MA is missing, but the 30-day MA at $139.49 provides a clear resistance ceiling. Options data highlights two key contracts for bearish exposure:

• CRCL20250919P120 (Put, $120 strike, 9/19 expiry):
- IV: 85.38% (high volatility)
- Delta: -0.305 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.140 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0219 (responsive to price moves)
- Turnover: 588,043 (high liquidity)
- Leverage: 37.86% (strong gearing)
This put option offers optimal leverage for a 5% downside scenario (targeting $119.63). With 85%+ IV and 37%+ leverage, it's positioned to capitalize on accelerating decay as CRCL approaches the strike.

• CRCL20250919P125 (Put, $125 strike, 9/19 expiry):
- IV: 85.17% (high volatility)
- Delta: -0.426 (strong sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0939 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.0245 (high responsiveness)
- Turnover: 550,278 (high liquidity)
- Leverage: 23.49% (balanced gearing)
This contract provides a safer entry point for a 5% move to $119.63, with 85%+ IV and 23% leverage offering a favorable risk-reward profile. The higher strike price reduces immediate decay risk while maintaining upside for deeper selloffs.

Aggressive bears should prioritize CRCL20250919P120 for maximum leverage, while more conservative positions may favor CRCL20250919P125 for balanced exposure. Both contracts benefit from CRCL's proximity to key support levels and elevated IV.

Backtest Circle Stock Performance
I attempted to retrieve historical price data for “CRCL.N – Circle” but no records were returned, which suggests one of the following:1. The symbol “CRCL.N” might not exist (or is not currently listed on major U.S. exchanges / data vendors).2. Circle may trade under a different ticker symbol.3. The company is still private (or has only recently listed and data coverage is unavailable).To proceed with a rigorous back-test of post-plunge performance, we need access to daily (or preferably intraday) OHLC data. Could you please confirm:• The exact stock ticker (as recognized by your market data provider or broker), • The primary exchange on which it trades, and • Whether the share began trading after Jan-2022 (if applicable).Once we have a valid ticker and data start date, I can quickly build the event list of −6 % intraday drops and run the full back-test.

CRCL Faces Critical Support Test: Aggressive Bets on Put Options Gain Momentum
CRCL's 5.8% intraday drop has created a high-conviction shorting opportunity as the stock approaches its 52-week low and key support levels. The technical indicators and options data confirm a bearish bias, with put options at $120–$125 offering optimal leverage for a continuation of the selloff. Sector leader PayPal's -0.57% decline suggests the move is stock-specific, but CRCL's collapse could trigger further volatility in leveraged positions. Investors should monitor the $120 level for confirmation of a breakdown, with CRCL20250919P120 as the top pick for aggressive short-term bearish exposure.