Cipher Mining Soars 9.68% Intraday—What’s Fueling This Sudden Bullish Surge?

Summary
• Cipher Mining (CIFR) surges 9.68% to $6.855, hitting an intraday high of $7.1
• Canaan’s $6,840 miner supply agreement sparks demand optimism
• Short interest spikes 19.77% as bears face potential squeeze

Cipher Mining’s 9.68% intraday rally has ignited a frenzy in the blockchain sector, driven by a landmark Canaan supply deal and surging short-covering pressure. The stock’s sharp rebound from $5.95 to $6.855 reflects a perfect storm of bullish catalysts, including Bitcoin’s renewed momentum and regulatory tailwinds. With the 52-week high at $7.77 still in reach, traders are scrambling to decode whether this breakout is a short-term pop or the start of a sustained rally.

Canaan’s $6,840 Miner Supply Agreement Ignites Short-Term Optimism
Cipher Mining’s explosive move is anchored in a pivotal $6,840 Avalon A15Pro miner supply agreement with Canaan, announced July 17. This marks Canaan’s first major domestic manufacturing push for U.S.-based crypto miners, signaling robust demand amid Bitcoin’s recent price surge. The deal’s execution at Cipher’s Black Pearl facility, combined with the unlocking of new power sources, has rekindled investor confidence in the firm’s operational scalability. Meanwhile, short interest has spiked 19.77% since the last report, with 20.48% of shares sold short. While this bearish positioning typically signals vulnerability, it also creates a high-probability short-squeeze scenario if the stock sustains its upward trajectory.

Blockchain Sector Gains Momentum as MARA Leads Rally Amid Bitcoin Surge
The broader blockchain sector has mirrored Cipher Mining’s bullish momentum, with Marathon Digital (MARA) surging 5.86% as Bitcoin’s all-time highs drive institutional demand. However, Cipher’s move is uniquely tied to its Canaan partnership rather than macro trends. While MARA’s gains reflect the sector’s exposure to Bitcoin’s price action, Cipher’s rally is fueled by a concrete supply-side event. This divergence highlights the sector’s bifurcation: firms with tangible operational expansions (like Cipher) are outperforming pure Bitcoin ETF plays.

High-Leverage Call Options and ETF Positioning for the Breakout
• 200-day average: $4.605 (below current price)
• RSI: 72.76 (overbought)
• MACD Histogram: 0.0193 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 6.855 (closing in on upper band at 7.406)

Cipher Mining’s technicals suggest a continuation of its breakout, with key support at $5.429 (20-day MA) and resistance at $7.406 (Bollinger upper band). The RSI’s overbought reading and positive MACD histogram signal momentum remains intact, despite the 9.68% intraday gain. For options traders, the CIFR20250801C6.5 and CIFR20250801C7 call options stand out due to their high leverage and liquidity.

• CIFR20250801C6.5 (Call, $6.5 strike, 8/1 expiry):
- IV: 149.63% (elevated, reflecting volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 7.38% (high gearing)
- Delta: 0.650 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0446 (rapid time decay)
- Turnover: $114,934 (liquid)
- Gamma: 0.205 (strong price sensitivity)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($7.25): $0.75 profit per contract
- Why it stands out: High leverage and liquidity make it ideal for a short-term breakout play. The moderate delta ensures it benefits from price movement without excessive premium erosion.

• CIFR20250801C7 (Call, $7 strike, 8/1 expiry):
- IV: 163.47% (very high)
- Leverage Ratio: 9.13% (aggressive gearing)
- Delta: 0.546 (balanced sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0475 (rapid decay)
- Turnover: $141,450 (high liquidity)
- Gamma: 0.201 (strong responsiveness)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($7.25): $0.25 profit per contract
- Why it stands out: The $7 strike is a psychological level near the 52-week high. With a 9.13% leverage ratio and $141,450 turnover, this option offers a high-risk/high-reward play if Cipher breaches $7.1.

Trading View: Aggressive bulls should target the CIFR20250801C6.5 for a breakout above $6.5, with a stop-loss below $5.95. For a more directional bet, the CIFR20250801C7 offers leverage if the stock tests its 52-week high. However, the overbought RSI (72.76) suggests caution for long-only positions.

Backtest Cipher Mining Stock Performance
The 10% intraday surge in CIFR has historically led to positive short-to-medium-term gains. The backtest data shows that:1. Frequency and Win Rates: The event has occurred 527 times over the past five years, with a 3-day win rate of 49.34%, a 10-day win rate of 52.18%, and a 30-day win rate of 59.39%. This indicates a higher probability of a positive return in the short to medium term after the intraday surge.2. Returns: The average 3-day return following the event is 0.97%, with a maximum return of 12.11% on day 59. The 10-day return is slightly higher at 1.59%, with a maximum return of 14.22% on day 79. The 30-day return is 5.29%, with a maximum return of 16.56% on day 109.3. Max Return: The maximum return during the backtest period was 16.56%, which occurred after 109 days. This suggests that while the initial response to the intraday surge is generally positive, there is potential for further gains in the weeks following the event.In conclusion, a 10% intraday increase in CIFR has been followed by positive returns in the short to medium term, making it a potentially favorable event for investors looking to capitalize on intraday movements. However, it's important to note that while the historical data suggests a positive trend, market conditions and other factors can always affect actual performance.

Short-Squeeze Potential and Strategic Entry Points for Aggressive Traders
Cipher Mining’s 9.68% intraday surge is a mix of fundamental catalysts (Canaan’s supply deal) and technical momentum (RSI overbought, Bollinger upper band proximity). The short-interest spike to 20.48% creates a high-probability squeeze scenario if the stock holds above $5.95. While the 52-week high at $7.77 remains a distant target, the CIFR20250801C6.5 and CIFR20250801C7 call options offer amplified exposure to a continuation of this rally. Sector peers like MARA (up 5.86%) reinforce the blockchain theme, but Cipher’s unique supply-side event positions it as a breakout leader. Act now: Buy CIFR20250801C6.5 if the stock breaks $6.5; target CIFR20250801C7 if $7.1 is pierced. Monitor short-covering volume for confirmation of a sustained move.