Cipher Mining's $5.5B AWS Bet Cements HPC Prowess in AI Era

Cipher Mining Inc. (NASDAQ: CIFR) shares surged nearly 19% in premarket trading on Nov. 3, 2025, following the company's announcement of a landmark $5.5 billion, 15-year lease agreement with Amazon Web Services (AWS) to provide AI infrastructure. The deal, which includes 300 megawatts of capacity split into two phases starting in July 2026, marks Cipher's first direct contract with a Tier 1 hyperscaler and underscores its pivot toward high-performance computing (HPC) hosting, according to the company's Q3 business update. The company also disclosed a joint venture to develop a 1-gigawatt (GW) data center in West Texas, named "Colchis," where it will hold approximately 95% equity, as reported by a Seeking Alpha report.

The AWS lease is part of Cipher's broader strategy to capitalize on the AI boom, which has intensified demand for power-efficient data centers. The agreement specifies both air- and liquid-cooled infrastructure, enabling higher-density operations, according to a Yahoo Finance report. Concurrently, Cipher secured a 1-GW Direct Connect Agreement with American Electric Power (AEP) for the Colchis site, targeting energization in 2028. The 620-acre site, adjacent to an existing substation, will be developed in parallel with regulatory approvals from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the company's update said.

Financial results for Q3 2025, released alongside the announcements, showed revenue of $72 million and non-GAAP adjusted earnings of $0.10 per diluted share, compared with a net loss of $3 million ($0.01 per share) under GAAP. While revenue fell short of the $76.5 million consensus estimate, adjusted earnings aligned with expectations, as reported by Yahoo Finance. Cipher also completed a $1.3 billion convertible note offering, bolstering liquidity as it advances its 3.2 GW development pipeline, the company's Q3 update said.

The stock's sharp rally followed months of mixed earnings performance. Over the prior four quarters, Cipher missed or narrowly met consensus estimates, with a negative average earnings surprise of 16.25%, according to a Nasdaq preview. However, the AWS deal and Colchis project have reignited investor optimism. Analysts at BTIG and Macquarie recently upgraded their price targets to $25 and $27 per share, respectively, citing the company's strategic positioning in the HPC market, as noted in a MarketBeat report.

Looking ahead, Cipher's financial trajectory will depend on timely execution of the AWS lease and Colchis development. The AWS rent payments, commencing in August 2026, are expected to drive revenue visibility, while the Colchis project's energization in 2028 hinges on AEP's interconnection progress and ERCOT approvals, the company's update said. Management emphasized the transformative nature of these transactions, with CEO Tyler Page stating the agreements "firmly establish our credibility in the HPC space."