CHT Dips 0.18% Amid Bearish Trend As Resistance Holds At 44.40

CHT declined by 0.18% in the most recent trading session, closing at 43.68. The stock has been trading within a bearish trend recently, with technical indicators providing mixed signals regarding potential reversals.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows CHT struggling to maintain upside momentum. The August 4 session formed a bearish rejection candle with a high of 44.40 and close near the session low (43.68), indicating selling pressure near the 44.40 resistance level. Key support is established at 43.28 (July 31 low), while resistance remains firm at 44.40-44.59, coinciding with recent highs. The failure to close above 44.40 after testing this level reinforces its significance as a supply zone.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages all slope downward, confirming a bearish intermediate to long-term trend. With the current price (43.68) trading below all three averages, it signals sustained bearish momentum. The 50-day MA (approximately 44.50) now acts as dynamic resistance, having recently capped recovery attempts. This alignment of moving averages below the price underscores the prevailing bearish structure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD remains in negative territory with the signal line above the MACD line, supporting bearish momentum. The histogram shows no convincing reversal signal yet. KDJ readings (K:30.5, D:26.1) approach oversold territory but remain above extreme levels. Recent sessions show %K attempting to stabilize near 30, suggesting downside exhaustion may be developing, though no bullish crossover is yet evident in %K and %D lines.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands contracted notably in late July, signaling reduced volatility before the recent test of support. The current price (43.68) hovers near the lower band (approximately 43.00-43.20), indicating oversold conditions. Band expansion from this level would likely confirm directional momentum – a break below 43.20 could accelerate selling, while a rebound might target the middle band (20-day SMA near 44.00).
Volume-Price Relationship
The August 4 decline occurred on elevated volume (151,759 shares vs. 30-day avg ~118,000), confirming bearish conviction. Volume spikes have consistently validated directional moves, such as the July 15 distribution (199,167 shares) preceding further declines. This volume pattern suggests capitulation may be underway, but sustained high volume on down days remains concerning for bulls.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reads 46.0, positioned neutrally between overbought (>70) and oversold (<30) thresholds. It has stabilized after avoiding the oversold zone despite recent lows, showing no divergence with price action. Historically, RSI has provided timely warnings when crossing 30 (e.g., early April rebound), but current neutrality warrants caution against premature reversal calls.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing high of 46.95 (July 2) and low of 43.28 (July 31), key Fibonacci levels are identified: 23.6% (44.14), 38.2% (44.68), and 50% (45.12). The recent rejection near the 23.6% retracement (44.40) reinforces its technical significance. Confluence exists as this level aligns with the July 24 high (44.59), creating a robust resistance zone. A sustained break above 44.14 would suggest bearish invalidation.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence appears in oversold signals: Bollinger Bands show price near the lower boundary while KDJ approaches oversold territory, both highlighting 43.00-43.28 as critical support. However, bearish consensus dominates with volume-confirmed breakdowns, resistance rejections, and moving average alignment. A notable divergence is emerging as price tests July lows while RSI and KDJ register higher lows, hinting at weakening downside momentum. This conflict suggests potential for consolidation near 43.30, though confirmation requires bullish reversal signals.