Chipotle Faces Two Major Risks in 2026: Traffic Recovery and Margin Pressure

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) enters 2026 with a strong brand and unit expansion, but faces two significant risks: navigating a challenging traffic recovery and margin pressure. The company's valuation assumes a return to positive same-store sales growth, but if consumers continue to pull back on discretionary dining, Chipotle could face another year of flat or declining transactions. Additionally, higher food and labor costs could lead to margin compression and difficult trade-offs for the company. Investors should watch for signs of traffic inflection and monitor the company's profitability in 2026.