China's yuan fixing estimated at 6.8816, survey shows

China’s yuan mid-point fixing has drawn attention as market expectations and central bank actions highlight ongoing efforts to manage currency stability. According to a Reuters survey, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) was anticipated to set the yuan’s mid-point at 6.8816 per U.S. dollar on March 2, 2026. However, the actual fixing reported later that week came in at 6.9088 per dollar, marking the central bank’s largest midpoint adjustment in over six months and a 148-pip increase from the prior level. This move followed two consecutive sessions of offshore yuan losses, signaling authorities’ intent to counter depreciation pressures amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

While the official midpoint exceeded recent adjustments, it fell slightly below market estimates, reflecting a measured approach to balancing currency support with economic flexibility for exporters. The PBOC’s strategy aligns with broader measures, including recent adjustments to foreign exchange (FX) forward reserve requirements, aimed at curbing rapid yuan appreciation while mitigating risks for trade-dependent sectors.

Market focus now shifts to China’s annual “Two Sessions” legislative meetings, scheduled from March 4 to March 11, where policymakers are expected to outline economic targets and unveil the 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026–2030. These developments will likely shape the yuan’s trajectory amid evolving domestic and global dynamics.

(https://www.marketscreener.com/news/china-pboc-expected-to-set-yuan-mid-point-at-6-8816-per-dollar-ce7e5cdddc88f125): Reuters estimate via MarketScreener(https://tradingeconomics.com/china/currency/news/529853): Trading Economics and central bank midpoint adjustments.