U.S.-China Trade Truce Volatility and Its Impact on Global Supply Chain Stocks

The U.S.-China trade truce, while offering a temporary reprieve from escalating tariffs, has introduced a new layer of volatility into global supply chains. This uncertainty has accelerated the shift toward reshoring and nearshoring strategies, as companies seek to mitigate risks and align with geopolitical realities. For investors, this transition presents opportunities in undervalued manufacturing and logistics firms poised to benefit from these structural changes.

Reshoring and Nearshoring: A Strategic Imperative

The 2025 U.S. Nearshore Report underscores that reshoring and nearshoring are no longer cost-driven exercises but strategic responses to supply chain fragility, regulatory shifts, and the need for resilience. Tariff adjustments, particularly in the U.S., UK, and Australia, have pushed firms to diversify production closer to home or into allied nations like Mexico, Brazil, and Japan. For instance, U.S. manufacturers are repatriating semiconductor production under the CHIPS Act, while UK firms are exploring nearshoring within the Commonwealth.

Undervalued Manufacturing and Logistics Firms

Prologis (PLD): Logistics Real Estate's Reshoring Catalyst

Prologis, the largest owner of logistics real estate, has seen demand surge as companies expand domestic warehouse capacity. Despite a recent rally, analysts argue it remains undervalued. BofA's Samir Khanal raised his price target to $144 from $130, citing strong Q3 performance and improved 2025 earnings guidance. Prologis's fair value has increased to $131.90, reflecting confidence in long-term cash flow durability.

Manhattan Associates (MANH): Software for Supply Chain Complexity

Manhattan Associates, a logistics software provider, reported a 3% year-over-year revenue increase, with software revenue growing 19%. Analysts have assigned a "Buy" consensus rating, though challenges like cloud migration and macroeconomic headwinds persist. According to forecasts, analysts expect positive momentum.

Intel (INTC): Semiconductor Reshoring's Flagship

Intel's $8 billion CHIPS Act grant positions it as a key player in semiconductor reshoring. While its stock is not among the Motley Fool's top 10 recommendations, its strategic role in domestic chip manufacturing makes it a critical beneficiary of the trend.

Canadian National Railway (CNR): The Artery of North American Reshoring

CNR's tri-coastal rail network is indispensable for reshoring logistics. With a forward P/E ratio of 17.01-below its five-year average of 20.71-and a current price of $98.14 (undervalued by 11.61% relative to its fair range of $111.03–$131.82), CNR is attracting attention. Analysts like RBC Capital and BMO Capital Markets have assigned "Outperform" ratings with price targets up to $163. According to financial analysis, the stock remains a solid long-term play.

Vulcan Materials (VMC): Construction for Domestic Manufacturing

Vulcan Materials, a supplier of construction aggregates, is foundational to reshoring infrastructure. Its P/B ratio of 4.46 is 8.92% above its 3-year average, but its fair price range of $256.48–$302.13 suggests it is in a "Fair" valuation zone.

Rockwell Automation (ROK): Smart Factories and Automation

ROK's P/E ratio of 51.78 is high, but its focus on digital transformation and automation aligns with nearshoring needs. Goldman Sachs upgraded ROK to "Neutral" with a $448 target, citing improved pricing discipline and margin expansion.

Caterpillar (CAT) and Honeywell (HON): Industrial Giants in Transition

Caterpillar's P/E ratio of 28.80 is below its fair ratio of 41.77x, suggesting undervaluation despite a DCF analysis indicating it trades near intrinsic value. Honeywell, with a DCF-derived intrinsic value of $221.89 (12.8% discount to its current price), is another undervalued play, supported by a "Moderate Buy" consensus and a 25.99% upside potential.

Risks and Considerations

While these firms are well-positioned, investors must remain cautious. For example, Prologis's valuation may be stretched relative to its intrinsic worth, and ROK's high P/E ratio reflects expectations of future growth rather than current earnings. Additionally, geopolitical shifts or a reversal in trade policies could disrupt nearshoring momentum.

Conclusion

The U.S.-China trade truce has catalyzed a reconfiguration of global supply chains, creating opportunities for undervalued manufacturing and logistics firms. Prologis, CNR, and Honeywell stand out for their strategic roles and favorable valuations, while ROK and VMC offer exposure to automation and infrastructure. Investors should balance these opportunities with macroeconomic risks, but the long-term trend toward resilient, localized supply chains appears firmly entrenched.