China's oil demand to peak in 2027, increase by 100,000 bpd this year, state researcher says

China's oil demand to peak in 2027, increase by 100,000 bpd this year, state researcher says

China's oil demand is set to reach its peak in 2027, according to a state oil researcher. This year, the demand is expected to increase by approximately 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), driven primarily by the petrochemicals sector. The researcher made these predictions at the APPEC energy and petrochemicals conference in Singapore [1].

The surge in electric vehicle (EV) usage in China, the world's largest oil importer, is significantly reducing fuel demand. The researcher estimates that EVs will replace at least 25 million metric tons of gasoline, equivalent to 582,000 bpd, this year [1].

Independent "teapot" refiners in China are operating at 45% of their capacity this year, down from 60% last year and 70% in 2023. This decline in refining capacity is attributed to the increased use of EVs and other factors [1].

The researcher also noted that China's petrochemicals demand will not peak before 2050. Ethylene demand is projected to grow by 8% this year, while propylene demand is expected to rise by 7% [1].

Separately, Russia and China have signed a legally binding memorandum to construct the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, a massive gas project that could reshape the global energy map. Once completed, the pipeline could supply 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually to China from Russia’s Arctic gas fields [2]. This agreement aims to increase supplies via the existing Power of Siberia pipeline, which currently runs from Eastern Siberia to China, to 44 billion cubic metres (bcm) a year from 38 bcm [2].

The cost of the pipeline, including pricing and construction responsibilities, remains unclear. However, the agreement signifies a strengthening of the energy partnership between China and Russia, despite Western sanctions on Russia [2].

References:
[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-oil-demand-peak-2027-up-100000-bpd-this-year-state-researcher-says-2025-09-08/
[2] https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/power-of-siberia-2-pipeline-russia-china-sign-landmark-oil-deal-key-details-101756808127010.html