China's Commerce Minister: The priority for the 15th Five-Year Plan is to build on the strengths of the 14th Plan and turn them into long-term mechanisms.

China's Commerce Minister: The priority for the 15th Five-Year Plan is to build on the strengths of the 14th Plan and turn them into long-term mechanisms.

China's Commerce Minister has outlined the priority for the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP), emphasizing the need to build on the strengths of the 14th Plan and transform them into long-term mechanisms. This strategic approach aims to address both domestic and international challenges while pursuing high-quality development and innovation-led growth.

The 15th FYP, set to guide China's economic and social development through 2030, will focus on boosting domestic consumption, fostering innovation, and addressing demographic shifts. Key themes include pursuing high-quality development, the dual circulation strategy, and becoming a technological powerhouse and an innovation-led economy [1].

A significant challenge for China over the next five years is the increasingly complex and uncertain external environment. This includes intense global competition for technological leadership, the reshaping of global industrial and supply chains, and the overhaul of the global governance system [1]. To navigate these challenges, expanding domestic demand will be crucial, with a particular emphasis on boosting household consumption.

The 14th FYP saw traditional drivers of economic growth, such as the real estate sector, lose momentum, while emerging industries like new-energy vehicles and photovoltaic equipment expanded. However, cultivating new quality productive forces remains a long-term challenge. To achieve an average annual growth rate of 5% during the 15th FYP period, China needs an increase of 38 trillion RMB in total demand [1].

China's population has been declining since 2022, with the working-age population expected to continue falling. This demographic shift will impact labor supply and demand, increasing labor costs and potentially weakening consumer spending. Addressing these demographic changes will be essential for sustained economic growth [1].

The Commerce Minister's focus on leveraging the strengths of the 14th Plan underscores the importance of continuity and long-term planning. By building on past successes and addressing current challenges, China aims to achieve its broader goal of "socialist modernisation" by 2035. This strategy will require a balanced approach, combining government efforts with market-driven reforms to stimulate domestic demand and drive economic growth.

References:
[1] https://www.thinkchina.sg/economy/key-challenges-chinas-next-five-year-plan-needs-tackle