Perspectivas de inversión en Chimera: Condiciones técnicas débiles y opiniones mixtas de los analistas

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Chimera Investment (CIM.N) is showing a recent price rise of 1.32%, but technical indicators remain bearish with an internal diagnostic score of 2.43 — suggesting a weak trend and a cautionary stance for investors.

News Highlights

Recent news points to cautious optimism for commercial mREITs and broader real estate markets:

• Commercial mREIT Recovery: As of September 2025, improving returns, loan originations, and interest rate cut expectations have pushed mREITs like CIM.N closer to a recovery phase, though volatility remains. This could offer some long-term support for Chimera, though near-term uncertainties persist.
• 2026 Growth Outlook: J.P. Morgan Research suggests REIT growth could reach ~6% in 2026 if rate cuts are delivered. Chimera’s performance will likely depend on how well it navigates the expected interest rate easing and credit conditions.
• Undervalued mREITs: A December 2025 article highlights three undervalued mREITs based on metrics like P/S and shareholder yield. While Chimera isn’t explicitly named, its fundamentals and current valuation could place it in similar analytical consideration.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts are divided, with one recent “Strong Buy” rating from UBS’s Douglas Harter. However, his historical performance shows a 33.3% win rate and an average 1.21% return over three predictions — suggesting inconsistency.

• Average Rating Score: 5.00 (simple mean).
• Weighted Rating Score: 2.31 (historical performance-weighted).
• Rating Consistency: Dispersed — “Strong Buy” contrasts with the internal model’s caution.
• Price Trend Mismatch: Despite a recent 1.32% price rise, the weighted analyst expectations remain neutral to bearish, signaling a potential divergence.

Fundamental Highlights

• Net Assets per Share Growth (YoY): 1.59% — internal diagnostic score of 3.00.
• Net Income to Revenue (Margin): -13.38% — score of 3.00. A negative margin raises caution.
• ROTA (Return on Total Assets): -12.35% — score of 2.00. Negative asset returns are a red flag.
• Basic EPS Growth (YoY): -47.19% — score of 2.00. Sharp earnings contraction.
• Profit-MV: 2.14 — score of 3.00. A moderate positive signal.
• Net Profit (Parent) YoY Growth: -46.65% — score of 3.00. Strong decline in profitability.

The mixed fundamental picture, with weak earnings and asset returns but some net asset growth, complicates the investment case. The overall fundamental model score is 6.42 — suggesting caution but not outright bearishness.

Money-Flow Trends

Fund flows are mixed, with large and extra-large investors showing inflows, while smaller investors remain cautious:

• Large/Extra-Large Inflow Ratios: 49.85% and 51.73% respectively — positive trends.
• Small/Medium Inflow Ratios: 48.23% and 47.95% — negative trends.
• Overall Inflow Ratio: 50.77% — a slight positive.

The fund-flow score is 7.94 (good), indicating that big-money investors are still adding to their positions, suggesting a cautious but not negative outlook despite technicals.

Key Technical Signals

Chimera’s technical signals are overwhelmingly bearish, with no bullish indicators and three negative ones in the last five days:

• WR Overbought: Internal diagnostic score of 3.38 — a cautious signal. Overbought conditions may hint at short-term correction.
• MACD Death Cross: Score of 1.00 — a strong bearish signal. This pattern historically predicts downward momentum.
• Marubozu White: Score of 2.92 — a mixed signal. It suggests a strong close but weak open, indicating uncertain momentum.

Recent Indicators by Date:

• 2025-12-18: WR Overbought (neutral rise)
• 2025-12-29: MACD Death Cross (biased bearish)
• 2025-12-22, 2026-01-09, 2026-01-08: Marubozu White (neutral rise but with weak open)

Technical Summary: “Bearish signals are obviously dominant (3 bearish vs 0 bullish). Recent technical signals are scarce, and the market is relatively calm.” The technical score remains at 2.43 — a weak trend — advising investors to avoid or limit exposure for now.

Conclusion

Chimera Investment is in a precarious position: while fundamentals show moderate positives and some large investors remain optimistic, the technical picture is weak and bearish. Analysts are divided, with one strong but historically underperforming voice advocating a “Strong Buy.”

Actionable Takeaway: Consider waiting for a pull-back or clearer momentum reversal before entering. Monitor earnings, cash flow developments, and the Fed’s rate decisions for potential turning points in 2026.