Chiliz/Tether Market Overview (2025-10-05)

• CHZUSDT opened at $0.04405 and closed at $0.04460, with a high of $0.04567 and low of $0.04401.
• Price formed a bullish breakout above key resistance at $0.0445, followed by a consolidation phase.
• Momentum accelerated in the early morning hours, with volume surging above the 24-hour average.
• RSI showed overbought conditions late in the session, while Bollinger Bands signaled a period of high volatility.
• Turnover exceeded $150 million, with a strong correlation between rising prices and volume.

The CHZUSDT pair opened at $0.04405 on 2025-10-04 12:00 ET and closed at $0.04460 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05. The price reached a high of $0.04567 and a low of $0.04401 during the 24-hour period. Total volume for the day was approximately 22.5 million CHZ, and notional turnover exceeded $150 million.

Key support levels identified over the past 24 hours include $0.0442 and $0.0439, with resistance at $0.0445 and $0.0448. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at $0.0445 on 2025-10-05 08:15 ET, followed by a doji formation at $0.04539 suggesting temporary indecision. A strong bullish breakout above $0.0445 was confirmed with a follow-through move to $0.04539, marking the strongest momentum of the session.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed to the bullish side shortly before the breakout, with the 50-period MA acting as dynamic support. The 50/100/200-day moving average structure also showed a gradual bullish alignment, with the price sitting well above all three. The MACD crossed above the signal line with a strong positive histogram, indicating accelerating momentum. RSI reached overbought territory near 70 late in the session, suggesting potential near-term exhaustion but not a reversal.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the early morning, coinciding with the breakout, with prices trading near the upper band most of the session. This indicates a period of high volatility and a likely continuation of the trend. Volume spiked during the breakout phase and remained elevated through consolidation, confirming the strength of the move. Notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern closely, indicating strong buyer participation and alignment with price action.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the key swing low at $0.04401 and high at $0.04567 showed the price testing the 61.8% level at $0.04469, before consolidating around the 50% retracement at $0.04484. This suggests that while the initial momentum has paused, key levels remain intact for further directional movement.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering long positions at confirmed bullish breakouts above the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, provided RSI is above 50 and volume is above the 24-hour average. A stop-loss is placed below the most recent swing low, with a target set at the next Fibonacci retracement level (61.8%). The strategy also incorporates trailing stops during consolidation phases to protect gains. Given the recent price action, this approach could have captured the move from $0.0445 to $0.04539 with a reasonable risk-reward ratio.